经济复苏之路: 财政刺激措施、金融部门重建及宽松政策的退出安排

2009年工作论文 作者：张智威 张文朗   HKMA WP09_18

经济复苏之路：财政刺激措施、金融部门重建及宽松政策的退出安排.pdf
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Abstract
The worst of the global financial crisis is probably behind us, but the trajectory to recovery
may vary widely across economies. Employing a dynamic structural multi-country
model with a financial accelerator, this paper studies the role of three important policy
actions in economic recovery: fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation and exit from
policy easing. The main finding is that while both fiscal stimulus and financial sector
rehabilitation contribute to economic recovery, the former is likely to be less effective
from a medium-term perspective and may generate some negative side effects. This
finding suggests that policy priority (of advanced economies in particular) should be on
continued financial sector rehabilitation. Moreover, international policy co-ordination is
beneficial as it can generate spillovers to regional economies. We also study the effects
of over-estimation of the post-crisis potential output by the monetary authorities in
advanced economies in their policymaking. We find that this may affect economic
recovery in the region through inflationary pressure and the consequent policy tightening