【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月印度摩托车行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
From growth to defensive
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Competitive dynamics worsening: After three years of benign competitive
environment, we expect the motorcycle industry to witness a sharp increase
in competitive intensity, leading to lower margins. We downgrade our rating
on Hero Honda to NEUTRAL and maintain our NEUTRAL rating on Bajaj.
■
Strong demand, weak earnings: We expect the Indian two-wheeler
industry to continue growing at its trend growth rate (c11%), over the next
few years. Exports will likely remain strong, though forecasting it is a
challenge. However, the industry will need to grow at more than 2x the trend
growth rate, if all the manufacturers’ ambitions are to be met. For the first
time in three years, Hero Honda and Bajaj will compete for the same set of
consumers – this has never been a profitable period for the industry.
Moreover, the industry profitability is currently at an all-time high – clearly
unsustainable in light of the above. We expect a drastic slowdown in
earnings growth of two-wheeler manufacturers. We expect Hero Honda’s
earnings to grow just 4.6% per annum in FY10-12E (44% in FY08-10E),
while Bajaj’s earnings to grow 3.8% in the same period (44% in FY08-10E).
■
Catalysts: We expect margins to contract from 4QFY10E, which will be a
likely trigger for near-term underperformance. We also expect manufacturers
to absorb most cost pressures, a clear sign of lack of pricing power.
■
Best defensives, defensives at best: We believe the two-wheeler industry
is past its prime in terms of earnings growth, and will likely grow slower than
the rest of the market for the next couple of years. Consequently, we do not
expect valuations to expand from here. We downgrade our rating on Hero
Honda to NEUTRAL with a new DCF-based target price of Rs1,698 (down
from Rs1,775). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on Bajaj, with a DCFbased
target price of Rs1,622. Two-wheelers, however, remain the top
defensive stocks in the consumer space. Both the companies have balance
sheet and cash flow characteristics.