【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月全球家用基站行业研究报告
        【作者】：CANTOR
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Within the telecommunications industry there is an emerging technology, the femtocell,
which we think investors should understand. The femtocell is a small cellular base
station, which allows service providers to extend service coverage indoors, especially
where access would otherwise be limited or unavailable. This extension of coverage
benefits the consumer, but its financial benefit has the potential to most directly impact
network operators’ bottom line through the reduction of backhaul and capital
expenditures.
Over the past several years, we have followed the femtocell through a traditional lifecycle
of interest. Initially, a few net promoters generate excitement regarding the technology
and the potential for cost savings, which is followed by numerous competitors entering
the marketplace. Then, the realities and challenges of the new technology result in
competitor exits or the scaling down (i.e., specialization) of their offerings. This is where
we believe the marketplace is currently. As an example, Ubiquisys (Private), which has
been a vocal participant in the production of femtocells, recently announced a change in
strategy. They are narrowing down the scope of their participation from fully-integrated
base station manufacturer to software provider. We expect to continue seeing competitors
exit or reduce the scope of their offering in the short-term.
Concurrently, with the adoption of the smartphone and the evolution to 4G, we are
witnessing a historical level of demand by consumers. We believe that the increased 4G
data speeds will drive more smartphone usage, as well as the number of 4G services
offered on these phones, which will then further test operators’ capacity.
In order to accommodate this increase in usage, we believe that operators will continue to
enhance the infrastructure that comprises their macro-networks, as well as to subdivide
their coverage areas to handle the dramatic increase in demand. In tandem with this
subdivision of coverage areas, we suspect that operators will seek out other means for
increasing coverage, decreasing costs, and improving quality. We believe that the
femtocell could be a viable tool that operators can use to meet these objectives.
We find the femtocell a compelling offering for network operators; however, we remain
unconvinced that there is a clear financial benefit to consumers. As we see it, in the eight
commercial femtocell launches to date the consumer is either paying a one-time upfront
fee or monthly fee for a service that enables another service (i.e., wireless connectivity)
for which they are already paying to work. When consumers are given a financial
incentive to use the femtocell, we expect our outlook to become more bullish on this
promising new technology.