【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月欧洲石油行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团  
      【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment case 3
– Value creation 2009-14F – key conclusions ..........................................................3
Sector view................................................................................................................4
– Equity strategy – neutral on oils, but still important................................................4
“Observable reality” check.........................................................................................6
– Ratings, target price and adjusted EPS changes...................................................6
Statoil downgrade to sell: dividend anxiety ...............................................................7
TOTAL downgrade to Hold on valuation ...................................................................7
BP – top pick (BUY) and core value creator..............................................................8
Other stocks ..............................................................................................................8
Value Creation: 2009-14F 9
Volume growth and capex.........................................................................................9
Upstream costs and EV/reserves............................................................................10
Cash flow and profitability .......................................................................................11
EBIT & EPS growth, dividends & cash yield ...........................................................13
Free cash flow and gearing .....................................................................................14
Key conclusions (BP best placed – BUY) ...............................................................15
4Q09 results – initial outlook 16
Oil macro 18
Oil prices – no more “business as usual” ................................................................18
– Oil prices – bearish in the near term ....................................................................19
US dollar – outlook for 2010....................................................................................20
Gas prices – back above trough levels ...................................................................20
Refining margins – challenging outlook...................................................................21
Current oil macro assumptions................................................................................22
Companies 23
BG Group ................................................................................................................24
BP............................................................................................................................26
ENI ..........................................................................................................................28
Galp Energia ...........................................................................................................30
Repsol-YPF .............................................................................................................32
Royal Dutch Shell A - Euro......................................................................................34
Royal Dutch Shell B - GBP......................................................................................36
StatoilHydro.............................................................................................................38
TOTAL.....................................................................................................................40
Disclosures Appendix 42