【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月北欧石油行业研究报告
        【作者】：Mackie Research
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
Viking could be the next Cardium: With weak natural gas prices persisting in 2010, oil-weighted producers are gaining attention as
they produce higher netbacks. One trend that evolved over the year was using horizontal drilling combined with multi-stage fracturing
to unlock the potential of Cardium oil at Pembina and surrounding pools. The development was surprising for some since the Pembina
pool, the largest oil pool in Canada, was developed decades ago and had long ceased to be associated with the term growth. As we start
2010, the search for the “new” Pembina Cardium is underway. We believe that the Viking could be the next major oil resource play in
the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
A statistical type of play: A resource play is generally a highly complex reservoir with significant variability in the well results, even
within concentrated areas. As the industry has yet to figure out how to identify the good locations from the bad, a large acreage position
is necessary in order to minimize the risks and allow the law of large numbers to take effect. We are of the opinion that resource style
plays are similar to each other in that they are “statistical” plays. In a statistical play, although there are bad wells, they are offset by the
good wells which tend to be very good. The Viking is a resource style play.
Large OOIP and low recoveries to date: One of the core requirements of a resource style play is a large amount of original resource in
place (OOIP/OGIP). Not only does a large OOIP mean that the play covers a large areal extent, but it usually also means that the play
is scalable and repeatable. The Alberta Geological Survey estimates that the Viking contains 3.6 billion barrels of OOIP in the WCSB. We
believe that the most prospective region for the play is in West Central Saskatchewan where there is an estimated 2.0 billion barrels of
OOIP, with the potential for estimates to double to 4.0 billion barrels. Since only a small amount of oil has been recovered, the amount
of upside could run into hundreds of millions of barrels of oil.
Economics comparable with other oil resource-plays: Although the Viking does not quite measure up to the Bakken, it compares quite
favourably to the Lower Shaunavon and the Cardium. Similar to other unconventional resource plays, we expect the drilling and
completion methodology to evolve over the next several years and the economics to potentially improve if the wells can be more
efficiently drilled or if the production rates improve. With the current royalty incentives, our Alberta Viking type well offers slightly
better economics than our Saskatchewan Viking type well. Based on our type curves, Viking light oil has a breakeven price of C$32/
bbl in Saskatchewan and C$27/bbl in Alberta.
Juniors have the most torque to the play: To estimate the impact that the Viking could have on the share price of each company, we
applied our type curve economics to all of the potential wells that could be drilled on the potential acreage. Based on our analysis, Novus
(NVS), WestFire (WFE), and Sure (SHR) have the highest torque to the Viking tight oil play. Although the royalty trusts have a lot of
land in the play, their large size reduces the per share impact of the Viking upside.
The future is bright for the Viking: Looking forward, we see the potential for the Viking play to spread to smaller pools that have been
underutilized. Companies have and will continue to acquire land surrounding the main producing pools in an attempt to capitalize on
lower permeability reservoirs. Higher well densities, waterflooding, and enhanced recovery methods are additional ways that the
Viking will likely be developed in the future.
Overall, we are of the opinion that the Viking is an exciting new play that offers tremendous upside. Although the risks are a little higher
compared to other oil resource plays, valuations are not nearly as rich, and we believe that investors looking for some oil exposure
should consider Viking players.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS