We believe that the Turkish oil and gas
sector is relatively immune to the global
demand slowdown
􀀗 The sector is exposed to the credit
crunch in the short term, but we expect
it to cope well
􀀗 Tupras is our key Overweight (V) call,
with an edge over EM peers, while we
assign an Underweight (V) rating to
Petkim owing to our concerns on
petrochemical industry margins
More equal than others
We believe the oil sector is at lower risk in Turkey than
elsewhere, as it is not dominated by the exploration business,
is buoyed by a huge supply deficit and resilient demand, and
is free of competitive threats in the short run.
In our universe of Turkish oil stocks, we believe Tupras
stands out as a winner, with its sound business model. It is
increasingly outperforming benchmark refining margins and
faces few risks to demand owing to the undersupplied
market. Petkim, by contrast, is most exposed to the threat of
falling margins and the impact of slowing demand in
Europe. Oil distribution margins in Turkey can withstand
recessionary threats but the industry faces challenges from
within via increasing competition.
We maintain our Overweight rating for Tupras (TRY32.0), but
now add a volatility indicator (V) to our rating. We maintain
our Overweight (V) for Aygaz (TRY3.30), Underweight (V) for
Petkim (TRY4.20), Underweight for Petrol Ofisi (TRY4.10)
and Underweight (V) for Turcas (TRY2.90).

目录

Investment summary 2
Turkish oil sector – well placed to weather the storm 2
Turkey – walking a tight rope 2
Tupras is a winner, in our view, and our top pick 3
Petkim under threat from petrochemical downturn 3
Winners and Losers 5
Aftermath of the crisis 5
Fall-out: who wins, who loses 8
Turkish oil sector 13
Turkish macro outlook 13
Equity markets hit in 2008 14
Oil sector in Turkey 15
Oil distribution – margins may contract 19
LPG losing out to growing natural gas demand 20
Petrochemicals: an expanding but lacklustre industry 21
Power: growth proposition 22
Global Sector Trends 27
Tough times for sector... 27
Why did crude prices fall? 28
Short-term oil-price catalysts 29
Oil-price outlook 30
Refining approaching mid-cycle margins 31
Complex refiners with distillate bias to gain 32
Petrochemicals: downturn imminent 33
Tupras 34
Petrol Ofisi 37
Petkim 40
Aygaz 44
Turcas 48
Disclosure appendix 53
Disclaimer 58