【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国石油开采装备行业展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：25
        【目录或简介】：

Starting a new journey: The upcycle is under way
With commodity (especially oil) prices as a tailwind and growing confidence in the
sustainability of the global economic recovery, we see a return to growth for the
oilfield service sector in 2010. Despite a strong recovery off the bottom in 2009
and many stocks at or near 52 week highs, we generally see very reasonable
valuations and the potential for upward revisions to Street estimates as the
strength of the recovery becomes clearer.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
ENSCO International (ESV.N),USD44.58 Buy
Weatherford International (WFT.N),USD18.76 Buy
Companies featured
ENSCO International (ESV.N),USD44.58 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 8.24 5.39 5.15
P/E (x) 6.9 8.3 8.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 4.9 5.2
Weatherford International (WFT.N),USD18.76 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.98 0.59 1.15
P/E (x) 15.7 31.6 16.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 11.1 8.0
Global Markets Research Company
Plenty of spending money for the trip: 2010 budgets trending up
The 2010 capital budgeting season is likely to be much more important than in
years past. Given the backdrop against which 2009 budgets were set, it is not
surprising that spending caps were quite hard and inflexible last year. Even very
high returning projects that might have received funding in the past were left
wanting. As such, we see significant pent up demand and expect a counterseasonal
recovery in activity levels in Q1 with continued progress through 2010
and into 2011. We expect capital spending to be up roughly 10% globally in 2010
with an additional 15-20% growth in 2011 (see Fig. 2, p. 3). We are raising our rig
count forecast in line with this region by region CAPEX build-up, with most of the
adjustment in North America (see Fig. 3, p. 4). We are also adjusting a couple
estimates for company specific reasons (see Fig. 1, p. 2)
Follow the map: Path to recovery tends to be predictable
Oilfield service stock cycles have been remarkably similar historically…with a twist
or nuance thrown in each time. In this cycle, we continue to believe that a
recovery in marginal oil drilling will lead the recovery while the historical leader, US
gas leverage, will struggle to maintain its recent strength. As we have done in past
recoveries (2000 & 2003), we are publishing a “roadmap” for the cycle detailing
the short-term, one-year and long-term outlook for various themes, sub-sectors
and stocks along with the timing of expected outperformance (see Fig.4, p. 6)
Recommendations: Favor early cycle names
Although commodity prices have long been above the threshold likely required to
stimulate new drilling activity, we have so far only seen modest improvements in
activity levels. As such, the recovery in marginal drilling that we typically associate
with the early stages of the cycle is only now playing out and we therefore
continue to favor relatively early cycle names. Along those lines, we favor names
with leverage to a recovery in marginal oil drilling. Ensco (ESV) is our favorite play
on this theme. Weatherford (WFT) offers industry-leading international growth.
Valuation and risks
We value service companies on multiples of trough EBITDA, which we assume to
be late ‘09/ early ‘10 for most companies. For offshore drillers, our target prices
are based on our DCF analysis in which we determine the price target based on a
discounted cash flow of contracted and un-contracted cash flows. Risks include
commodity prices and the impact that changes have on the demand for oilfield
services. Please see pages 2 & 21-22 for additional details on valuation and risks.