【出版时间及名称】：2010年中国连锁百货行业展望
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：26
        【目录或简介】：
We prefer national players (Parkson
and NWDS) in 2010…
􀀗 …as they have better long-term potential
despite underperforming last year
􀀗 Upgrade Parkson to OW(V) and
downgrade Golden Eagle to N(V)
National players look more attractive than regional ones.
This year, China’s government plans to increase its focus on
balancing economic growth and raising consumption across
the country (from east to west). This should give more
growth momentum to national players over the long term,
as they already have nationwide store networks.
Our geographical analysis supports this view; Parkson
and NWDS operate stores in the faster-growing provinces.
We found that provinces with GDP per capita of
RMB18,000-30,000 contributed most to China’s overall
growth historically (see pages 4 and 5). Over the long term,
national players also carry lower execution risk than those
that have yet to set up a larger presence, in our view.
Number of stores by region
Group 1: key urban
cities
Group 2: coastal
regions
Group 3: faster
growth outlook
GDP per capita over RMB50K RMB30K-50K RMB18K-30K
Parkson 6 12 13
NWDS 11 11 9
Golden Eagle 1 11 2
Intime 0 17 5
Maoye 0 9 3
Source: Company data, HSBC; GDP per capita in 2008 (CEIC)
National players have also underperformed their regional
peers by c150% since the beginning of 2009. Since we
estimate that national players’ SSS and EPS growth in 2010
will recover to similar levels as regional players, national
players should regain the market’s attention this year.
We upgrade Parkson, our top pick in the department
store sector for 2010, from N(V) to OW(V) given the
company’s relatively high long-term growth potential but
underperformance over the last year. We downgrade Golden
Eagle from OW(V) to N(V) mainly due to demanding
valuation. We reiterate our ratings on NWDS (OW(V)),
Intime (UW(V)), and Maoye (UW(V)).