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Why you should love statistics?
视频链接

Think you're good at guessing stats? Guess again. Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited, says data visualization expert Alan Smith. In this delightful talk, Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we think we know.

And I was so thrilled with this study, I started to take questions out in presentations. I was referring to it.

Now, I did a presentation at St. Paul's School for Girls in Hammersmith,
and I had an audience rather like this, except it was comprised entirely of sixth-form girls.
And I said, "Girls, how many teenage girls do you think the British public think get pregnant every year?"
And the girls were apoplectic when I said the British public think that 15 out of every 100 teenage girls get pregnant in the year.
And they had every right to be angry, because in fact,
I'd have to have closer to 200 dots before I could color one in, in terms of what the official figures tell us.

And rather like numeracy, this is not just an English problem.

Ipsos MORI expanded the survey in recent years to go across the world.
And so, they asked Saudi Arabians, for every 100 adults in your country, how many of them are overweight or obese?
And the average answer from the Saudis was just over a quarter.
That's what they thought. Just over a quarter of adults are overweight or obese.
The official figures show, actually, it's nearer to three-quarters.
So again, a big variation.
And I love this one: they asked in Japan, they asked the Japanese, for every 100 Japanese people, how many of them live in rural areas?
The average was about a 50-50 split, just over halfway.
They thought 56 out of every 100 Japanese people lived in rural areas. The official figure is seven.
我对这个研究感到很兴奋，并开始在各种演讲中提出这个问题。
我曾经在哈默史密斯的圣保罗女子中学做过一个演讲，
当时我有一群像现在这样的观众，唯一的差别是观众都是六年级的女学生。
我说道，“姑娘们，你们觉得英国公众认为每年有多少个青春期女孩怀孕？”
当我说出答案，女孩们是非常生气的，我说英国公众认为每一百个青春期女孩中每年有15个怀孕。
当然她们有生气的缘由和权利，因为实际上
根据官方数字，按比例，我必须要有近200个点才能将一个空白圆圈涂满色。

和计算能力一样，这同样不仅仅是英国的问题。
伊普索莫利机构在最近几年在世界范围内扩展了调查研究。
他们问沙特阿拉伯人，在你们国家，每一百个成年人中有多少个超重或是有肥胖症？
平均答案是四分之一多一点。
那是他们认为的。仅仅是四分之一多一点的成年人超重或有肥胖症。
官方数据显示，实际上，这个数字接近四分之三。
这又是一个巨大的差异。
下面这个调查我很喜欢：他们问了日本人，每一百个日本人里面 有多少人住在乡下？
平均答案大概是一半，稍高于50%。
他们认为每100个日本人中有56个居住在乡村地区。而官方数字是7。