【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月波兰化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：


Table of Contents
Ciech – Downgrade to Sell on near-term risks ............................... 4
Mounting operating risks make us cautious .............................................................................4
4Q09 preview: a fall in soda ash prices overwhelming TDI margins rebound ..........................5
Forecasts lowered on stronger PLN and weaker soda ash prices ............................................8
Valuation – 50/50 DCF- and comparative-based target price of PLN24.7................................10
Risks ......................................................................................................................................11
Synthos – Buy reiterated ................................................................ 13
Rising capacity should drive profits in 2011; Buy reiterated ...................................................13
4Q09 preview: strong margins in SBR and EPS......................................................................13
Forecasts lowered on higher feedstock costs ........................................................................14
Valuation – 20% discount to peers driven by intra-group transactions; target price of PLN1.43
...............................................................................................................................................15
Risks ......................................................................................................................................17
Fertilizer sector at a glance............................................................. 18
Not only seasonal, but a cyclical shift, in our view..................................................................18
Environment for profit rebound in the compound fertilizer segment is currently higher than in
the nitrogen segment..............................................................................................................18
Cyclically, competitive advantage gap should be narrowing...................................................18
Stock price performance justified by competitive advantage/disadvantage gap ....................19
Spreads of product prices over costs are strong, but only for foreign producers...................20
Grain prices seem to be supportive… ....................................................................................21
Pulawy – Hold maintained .............................................................. 25
4Q09 preview might be weak following 8% fall in domestic nitrogen prices in October .......25
Capital increase necessary for proposed purchase of Anwil ..................................................25
Our forecasts are down on FX and lower prices.....................................................................25
Valuation – 50/50 DCF- and comparative-based target price of PLN73...................................27
Risks ......................................................................................................................................28
Police – Hold maintained ................................................................ 30
4Q09 preview – over 84% YoY sales growth driven by volumes ...........................................30
Our forecasts are down for 2009, mainly on lower domestic prices ......................................32
Valuation – 50/50 DCF and comparative-based target price of PLN5.7...................................33
Risks ......................................................................................................................................34