【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Ethylene supply/demand loosens as exports demand comes off its peak
Despite steadily increasing low-cost capacity in the Middle East, low natural gas
prices have kept US producers of ethylene derivatives well-positioned to compete
in Asia. However, a recent slowing in export demand has caused the US market to
turn slightly long. With feedstock costs on the rise, domestic demand weakening
due to seasonality and downstream producers avoiding an inventory build towards
year-end, we expect margins in the ethylene chain to remain under pressure. As
such, we remain cautious on commodity chemical producers.
October contract ethylene prices rise 2.75c/lb
Contract ethylene prices rose 2.75c/lb to 37.25c/lb in October. Supply/demand
started to lengthen as domestic demand softened due to post-hurricane season
inventory de-stocking. Export demand, though still healthy, has softened from the
peak levels of August. Spot ethylene prices were flat at 30c/lb, after a 3.5c/lb
increase the previous month. Despite softer petchem demand, on the back of
rising feedstock costs we expect contract ethylene prices to increase 1c/lb in Nov.
Higher feedstock costs drive ethylene margins 3c/lb lower in October
Average ethylene production costs increased 5c/lb in October to 29c/lb (down
31% YoY), reflecting an 8% increase in crude oil prices and a 13% jump in natural
gas prices. Crude oil averaged $76/bbl in October vs. $69/bbl in September.
Ethane increased 7c/gal to 57c/gal in October, in line with the rise in oil prices.
Spot ethylene margins fell 4 c/lb to breakeven in October as production costs rose
5c/lb and spot prices remained flat. Contract ethylene margins fell 3c/lb to 7c/lb,
while average ethylene margins fell 3c/lb to 4c/lb. With export advantages eroding
and production costs moving higher, we expect average ethylene margins to
remain pressured (in the 2-3 cents/lb range) in November.
Polyethylene (PE) prices unchanged in October
Polyethylene contract prices were unchanged in October as nominations of 4-5c/lb
were postponed by one month. With production costs increasing by 4.5c/lb, or
20%, due to higher energy prices, HDPE margins contracted by 3c/lb to 13c/lb.
Due to softening export demand, we expect PE prices to roll over flat in
November. We expect continued PE margin contraction in Q4 due to rising
production costs coupled with demand weakness.
US acetic acid demand remains steady
October US acetic acid prices were flat with Q3 at 48-52c/lb amid steady
downstream demand. Global acetic acid operating rates are now 75-80%, with the
US at 80-85% and China operating well below the global average at 50-60%.
While US acetic acid producers have nominated price increases of 3-4c/lb for Q4,
with consumers likely to keep inventories low ahead of the year-end holiday
season, these price increases are unlikely to stick. In China, acetic acid prices
increased Rmb50/t ($10/t) to Rmb2800-2950/t ($410-$432/t) as demand
rebounded modestly after the Chinese National Day holiday week. Celanese has
doubled the capacity of its Nanjing acetic acid plant to 1.2MM tpa (8.7% of global
capacity).