[size=1.5em]Confusing statistics(China Daily)
Updated: 2010-02-27 07:55

The piles of official data the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released before the annual session of the National People's Congress are supposed to help lawmakers get to grips with the country's social and economic reality.
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But some of them have become so counterintuitive that the statistical officials can no longer simply dust the problem under the carpet by saying it's a matter of perceptive gap between professional statisticians and ordinary people.
If the country's top legislature is to base its decision-making on these digital numbers, lawmakers should first hold statistical officials accountable for the message they deliver. Because flawed understanding of real-world problems could lead to counter-productive policy responses that will bring about undesirable consequences for the country.
A case in point is the ridiculous growth in housing prices in the release. According to the NBS data released on Thursday, housing prices in the country's 70 major cities increased by only 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2009. Had that been the case, the intuitive question might be: Why has the central government been making such a show of trying to cool the property market since the end of last year.

Though a booming real estate sector has been widely considered a crucial driving force behind China's stronger-than-expected recovery last year, the government's top priority this year is to rein in excessive increase in housing price to prevent asset bubbles.
Most people feel housing prices in their cities saw at least a double-digit growth last year, that is, if they did not double or grow even higher. But the routine response of the statistical officials is typical. They say that though their low single-digit house price growth figures don't make any sense to the public, it is a scientific result of the statistical techniques they adopt.
Now, without promptly and thoroughly examining the scientific authenticity of the methods and measures adopted to collect and process the economic data, they are presenting these confusing and unconvincing statistics on the table of the national lawmakers.
In a year that can be the most complicated one for the national economy, it is hard to imagine how these counterintuitive data can help China's decision-makers.
More or less, the statistical officials have recognized the increasing inefficiency of the existing data collection and analysis methodology in reflecting China's changing reality. It is time to compel them to come up with a new statistical system that would work to clarify, and not cause confusion.