用eviews对两变量做协整检验,请高手看看根据检验结果确定的协整方程是什么。
Date: 03/01/10 Time: 13:05
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2008
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: LNEC LNGDP
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.542863 35.43155 25.87211 0.0024
At most 1 * 0.355323 12.73116 12.51798 0.0461
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.542863 22.70039 19.38704 0.0159
At most 1 * 0.355323 12.73116 12.51798 0.0461
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
LNEC LNGDP @TREND(79)
-7.148338 33.35834 -2.839630
-14.02326 -2.508011 0.931254
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(LNEC) -0.009073 0.015414
D(LNGDP) -0.017376 -0.000453
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 143.2773
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNEC LNGDP @TREND(79)
1.000000 -4.666587 0.397243
(0.81964) (0.07763)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNEC) 0.064854
(0.03884)
D(LNGDP) 0.124210
(0.02282)