【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月巴西教育行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
Brazil Education
Services
Profitability Story to Be
Played Post 1H10
Growth and profitability story: We like the Education
industry in Brazil and expect to see strong operating
improvements for the listed companies with EBITDA
doubling over the next 3 years. A favorable macro
environment with strong employment and access to
financing should play an important role in the future.
De-commoditization and consolidation: Our view on
the sector has just been reinforced by recent news on
regulation and consolidation: (i) Ministry of Education
enforcement of regulations governing distance learning;
(ii) Interest from international players seeking to enter
the Brazilian market and actively bidding for players.
Raising estimates: We are updating our models after
meeting several players during our Small and Mid Cap
Conference in New York, getting extra visibility on the
short and long term for the industry.
Valuation looks attractive: Education names have
underperformed the overall market over the past two
years, partially closing the gap in 2009. With the fears of
an economic downturn behind us (MS estimates GDP
growth of 4.8% for 2010), the industry appears cheap,
trading at a discount to historical multiples and the US
education industry when adjusted for growth.
We recommend Anhanguera and Kroton: We raise
AEDU EBITDA 2010E ~10%. At the current price AEDU
and KROT look attractive to us and ESTC and SEB
appear fairly priced.
We would rather wait until after 2Q10 to play the
industry: Our initial read is that despite the strong effort
to capture new students, enrollments for the first half of
the academic year are not going to be stronger than in
2009. We think some of the public players could present
lackluster results in the next couple of quarters, likely
creating better entry points later