【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月新加坡银行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
2009 – tough start, but things generally improved in 2H. New NPL
formation moderated sharply in 3Q09-4Q09, demonstrating clearly that
NPLs peaked in 2Q09. After shrinking in 1H09, loan growth recovered in
4Q09 (still, all three local banks lost market share in Singapore to the foreign
banks). Fee income, especially wealth management, started to come back
by 4Q09, trading income held up well at the highest levels since 2004-05,
and operating costs hardly advanced in 2009. The only negative trend in 2H
was pressure on margins, particularly on loans, but also on interbank assets.
■ Now the key challenge is revenue growth. We project that earnings will
grow 15-20% in 2010. However, this is largely from falling loan loss
provisions, whereas revenues are likely to expand by low single digits.
Although loan growth should recover to the 8-10% range, margins are
expected to contract as competition intensifies, trading income should
moderate as has been the trend elsewhere, and costs should normalise after
two years of control. We expect DBS to report the strongest loan growth
(and gain market share in Singapore where its loan-deposit ratio is 55%)
under the strategy of its new CEO, OCBC to deliver the best revenue
performance thanks to acquisition of ING Asia Private Bank (now Bank of
Singapore) and UOB’s revenues and pre-provision operating profits to be flat.
■ Downgrading UOB to NEUTRAL. DBS remains top pick. DBS has the
tailwind of stronger loan growth, which should also underpin margins (every
dollar shifted from interbank into loans adds to margins, even before the SIBOR
effect) and the potential purchase of Danamon would be positive for growth
dynamics. OCBC is carving out a niche in the wealth management space with
Bank of Singapore, Great Eastern Holdings, etc., which should support fee
income. In our view, UOB is the bank to accumulate during times of stress,
given its conservatism and ability to read cycles. But in 2010, UOB is likely to
deliver the weakest revenue growth, so we downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL.