【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月新加坡银行业研究报告
        【作者】：OSK DMG证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Refocus on balance sheet strength could widen
UOB’s P/B premium over peers
BUY UOB for balance sheet strength. Both OCBC and UOB reported 1Q10
earnings above our expectations, with stronger trading and investment income
featuring prominently. On the other hand, DBS also recorded strong net trading
income (4x that of 4Q09), but this was offset by higher-than-expected provisions
from Middle East – hence DBS’ earnings were below expectations. Given the
current uncertainties arising from developments in Europe, we prefer banks with
stronger balance sheet strength. UOB stands out in this respect, as it has 1) the
highest general provisioning to loan ratio; 2) the highest loan loss coverage; and
3) the highest CAR. We expect the P/B premium of UOB versus peers to widen
as compared with historical trends. UOB is our only BUY recommendation within
our NEUTRAL-weighted banking sector, whilst DBS is our least preferred.
UOB’s NIM narrowed the least sequentially. UOB’s 1Q10 NIM narrowed 3
bps QoQ to 2.25%, less severely than DBS’ 9 bps and OCBC’s 5 bps narrowing.
UOB’s NIM remains the widest, which management attributed to a better
geographical mix. OCBC’s NIM narrowing was attributed to the Feb 10 inclusion
of Bank of Singapore’s lower yield assets. For DBS, we expect its NIM to lag
peers on the back of persistently soft SIBOR. We forecast UOB’s NIM to remain
wider than peers in the subsequent quarters.
OCBC loan growth beat our expectations by the widest margin. OCBC
recorded organic loan growth of 4% QoQ, beating DBS’ 2.5% and UOB’s 1.4%.
Whilst we raised FY10 loan growth forecast for all three banks, we do not believe
the strong momentum in 1Q10 will persist. However, housing loans will remain a
key loan driver going ahead.
Strength in non-interest income due to trading and investment income. All
three banks recorded sharply stronger sequential trading and investment
income. Looking ahead, we do not expect the strength to persist as the capital
markets’ performance become less predictable. On fee and commission income,
DBS registered a sequential decline due to significant 4Q09 deal bookings,
whilst both OCBC and UOB reported mid-teens sequential growth rates.
Expect UOB’s P/B premium over peers to widen. Over the past 7-years, UOB
traded at an average P/B of 1.61x, wider than DBS’ 1.36x and OCBC’s 1.54x.
We expect this premium to widen as more market players begin to value UOB’s
balance sheet strength. Worthy of mention is UOB’s general provisioning to loan
ratio of 1.7%, which is sharply higher than DBS’ 1.2% and OCBC’s 1.1%. If UOB
were to hypothetically lower its ratio to 1.2%, it could potentially write-back
~S$500m, which is 17% of its FY10F net profit.
Contents
NIM was compressed and seen to stay flat going 3
forward
Superb 1Q10 non-interest income performance 10
Housing loan drove up overall loan 12
Asset quality has improved 14
DBS P/B discount versus peers to persist –
UOB is our best pick 17
Stock Recommendations
DBS Group Holdings
S$14.36 NEUTRAL (TP: S$13.60) 21
OCBC
S$8.55 NEUTRAL (TP: S$9.00) 26
UOB
S$18.72 BUY (TP: S$21.50) 31