【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月南美固定收益市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：
Having gone through Greek-style crises,
EM balance sheet appears strong
compared to that of developed markets
 Latam local curves have priced out
much of the hikes implicit in them; there
is not much value left in receivers
 Unwind of risk favors more-tempered
Latam FX appreciation outlook
The troubles of Greece, Portugal, and Spain have spoiled
what we had hoped was to be a good beginning of the
year for emerging-market risk. Spread deterioration of
Greece and other European credits has stopped; however, it
is too early to say that the situation is under control. EM
(old) problems may require EM (old) solutions.
Barring significant dislocation in the financial markets a
la 2008, EM should be relatively well-prepared to
withstand further deterioration in the outlook of
European sovereigns. We decided to buy into the dip and
went long the market again by entering a buy CDX.EM 5y
recommendation (see Buy CDX.EM 5y: Latam Fixed Income
Strategy trade idea, 10 February 2010).
Beyond what is going on with risk appetite globally, we
have taken a step back from our more aggressive stance
in high yielders due to an increase in idiosyncratic risk,
particularly in Argentina.
Since the end of 2009, the local curves have started to price
out some of the implied hikes, we see this move running
out of steam. We see little value left on receivers in Mexico
and Brazil after accounting for some risk premium. The 2/10s
flattening in Mexico has run its course, based on disappointing
news from Afores rule changes and delayed inclusion of
Mexico into the Citi Government Bond Index (WGBI).
We revised our end-2010 forecasts for BRL to 1.78/USD
from 1.58/USD, as well as for CLP, UYU, and ARS (see
Latam FX forecast revisions: The dollar wins, for now, 19
February 2010). As we see room for USD strength to
continue in the short term, we expect a consolidation of
Latam FX at weaker levels relative to our previous forecasts.