【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：

Major upgrade for Iron Ore and Coking Coal: Bulk
commodity prices have moved ahead at a rapid pace
over recent months. What is now clear is the iron ore
and coking coal markets are entering a phase change
for pricing mechanisms driven by BHP Billiton. We now
forecast iron ore and coking coal on benchmark and
spot / index basis. We are forecasting iron ore
benchmark to rise 60% for 2010, and spot to average
US$127/t. In coking coal we now forecast a benchmark
annual price at US$222/t, and spot to average US$203/t
in 2010.
Major EPS upgrade for BHP Billiton: We have
assumed BHPB will sell 44% of iron ore on spot / index
linked basis in C2010. We are assuming BHPB roll most
of its Chinese customers onto index linked prices. We
understand BHPB is likely to revoke contracts that have
expired due to Chinese steel mills failing to sign to new
prices in 2009 by the drop dead date embedded in
supply contracts. In the past, Chinese steel mills have
not acknowledged carry over tonnage and only paid the
lower of spot or contract to BHPB. Therefore spot and
index linked sales are more suited to these customers.
Rio Tinto and FMG remain on benchmark: We have
increased our earnings forecasts for both companies
and do not expect any spot sales from Rio Tinto or
Fortescue in C2010 for iron ore. FMG is raised to
Equal-weight and our price target increased to
A$3.95/share.
Macarthur Coal Burgeoning with Cash: The upgrade
to coking coal forecasts increases our price target to
A$13.13/share, or 29% upside, and our
recommendation is Overweight. We upgrade Riversdale
to Equal-weight from Underweight.