【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月澳大利亚葡萄酒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：26
        【目录或简介】：
April 2010, following a 5.3% increase in the preceding period. Volumes
increased 4.9% yoy, following a 4.3% increase in the prior period. The average
price per bottle increased 0.6% yoy to US$5.98.
• The key takeaways for the period were: 1) FGL’s US portfolio experienced its
worst period of sales decline and third worst period of volume decline in our 10
years of data; 2) FGL’s Australian portfolio recorded its worst period of sales
and volume decline in our 10 years of data; 3) Penfolds embarked on an
aggressive discounting campaign during the four week period, with the
percentage of sales sold on promotion increasing 17.8ppts. This resulted in a
108% increase in volumes; 4) FGL’s premium brands continue to perform
poorly in both portfolios; and 5) FGL’s underperformance relative to the market
deteriorated significantly in terms of sales and volume growth, but improved for
a third consecutive period in terms of pricing growth.
• FGL underperformed the overall US market in terms of sales (FGL -12.1% vs
market +5.6%), volume growth (FGL -11.8% vs market +4.9%) and pricing
growth (FGL -0.3% vs market +0.6%). The underperformance was driven by
weakness in premium wines in both the US and Australian portfolios and
reduced levels of promotional spend.
• On a YoY basis, FGL’s percentage of sales sold on promotion fell 6.7ppts
against a 0.8ppt decline for the market. The reduction in discounting by FGL is
likely to have contributed to the weakness in sales and volume growth relative to
the market.
• While FGL has sequentially improved its underperformance in average price per
unit relative to the market, the sustained underperformance since January 2009
remains concerning as margins are likely to come under pressure given the lags
in the production cycle. Inventory mix may not be able to cope with the
significant rotation down to lower priced products, increasing the need to
cascade higher cost stock into lower priced wine and/or further write down
inventories.