【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚LNG行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
Market focused on CSG, LNG buyers focused on west coast
The Australian CSG sector has seen considerable development over the last two
years with a number of significant corporate and assets transactions, and the
proposal of up to four large scale LNG projects on Gladstone's Curtis Island. Share
prices in stocks with CSG exposure have performed strongly, with several LNG
projects targeting FID in 2010. However, LNG sales contracts remain elusive. In
this report we explore why - buyers appear to be favouring conventional projects
on the west coast.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Santos (STO.AX),AUD14.06 Buy
Origin Energy (ORG.AX),AUD16.49 Buy
Oil Search (OSH.AX),AUD5.66 Buy
Companies featured
Woodside Petroleum (WPL.AX),AUD45.41 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 23.3 33.5 13.8
Div yield (%) 2.6 1.8 3.6
Price/book (x) 3.7 2.9 2.5
Santos (STO.AX),AUD14.06 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 49.1 61.2 37.1
Div yield (%) 2.8 2.8 2.8
Price/book (x) 1.7 1.7 1.7
Origin Energy (ORG.AX),AUD16.49 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 25.7 22.9 20.7
Div yield (%) 4.9 3.0 3.0
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.4 1.3
Oil Search (OSH.AX),AUD5.66 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 52.7 100.7 59.0
Div yield (%) 0.9 0.8 0.8
Price/book (x) 2.4 2.6 2.5
Arrow Energy (AOE.AX),AUD5.20 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – – –
Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 2.2 3.2 3.3
Global Markets Research Company
Buyers open for business on the West Coast
Twenty-three LNG agreements have been signed by Australasian LNG projects in
the past two years. While four of these relate to the PNG LNG project, there is a
clear bias towards the west coast over CSG to LNG, with nearly five conventional
agreements signed for every CSG agreement. Furthermore, of the thirteen
agreements that have progressed to the binding Sales and Purchase Agreement
(SPA) stage, all are with conventional projects, and not a single SPA has yet been
signed by a CSG to LNG project. This is a trend we believe has a way to go before
playing out, with approximately 37mmtpa of west coast LNG yet to be contracted.
Better the devil you know
We believe this contracting trend reflects a preference by LNG buyers for projects
with proven technologies and reserve bases. Traditional LNG buyers in Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan have a long history of focusing on security of supply over
pricing. With LNG markets loosening up, in our view, we believe the position of
negotiating strength has shifted from sellers to buyers. As a result, LNG buyers
have the luxury of choice in where to source new LNG volumes, and we have
seen, in the absence of lower pricing or equity sweeteners, a preference for
conventional projects on Australia’s west coast.
Project equity: the CSG to LNG white knight?
However, while this trend appears to be very negative for CSG to LNG projects in
the process of securing new contracts, we see a silver lining. Recent contracts
point towards a trend of CSG to LNG projects offering JV equity to potential LNG
buyers. We interpret this trend as a reflection of current strength in buyer
negotiating positions by offering buyers a share in the project upside. As a result,
in our view projects will still need to be willing to place equity on the table, as we
have seen with BG and CNOOC, and Santos’ stated willingness to sell down its
share in GLNG to potential buyers.
Sector valuation and risks
We value the sector using DCF analysis to estimate a Net Asset Value (NAV) using
DB oil price and fx assumptions. In addition, we also assess the NAV using the
crude oil forward curve. We set our price targets by taking the mid point of the
two NAVs and add a risk adjusted exploration potential for those we can identify.
Sector risks include oil price volatility, production outages, delays or capex
increases for major projects.

Table of Contents
What are the buyers doing?.............................................................. 3
Recent contracting trends in Australia ......................................................................................3
Buyer motivation behind current trends....................................................................................6
Surveying the projects ...................................................................... 9
Current Australian projects........................................................................................................9
The bulk of planned production remains on the west coast ...................................................10
Pluto expansion......................................................................................................................11
Gorgon ...................................................................................................................................12
Browse...................................................................................................................................12
Wheatstone ............................................................................................................................13
Ichthys ...................................................................................................................................13
Prelude...................................................................................................................................14
Sunrise ...................................................................................................................................15
Scarborough (Pilbara LNG)......................................................................................................16
Company overviews........................................................................ 18
Woodside (Hold, $49.70/sh) ...................................................................................................18
Santos (Buy, $18.50/sh) ..........................................................................................................20
Origin Energy (Buy, $21.00/sh) ...............................................................................................22
Oil Search (Buy, $6.50/sh).......................................................................................................24
Arrow Energy (Hold, $5.20/sh) ................................................................................................26