【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国光伏行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
We are downgrading a handful of solar names within our Alternative Energy coverage
universe as we believe this industry faces a number of supply and margin headwinds
heading into C2H10. We believe these headwinds are likely to cause many solar stocks
to underperform what we feel are more attractive alternative energy investments in the
LED and Wind sectors which look to have better underlying fundamentals over the next
12 months.
• Solar Demand Strength Is The Highlight In C1H10 as demand pull-forward in
Germany is apt to drive an atypical seasonal pattern in C2010. Our updated global
solar demand model calls for ~7.5GWs of installations in C2010 with our work
suggesting ~4.5GWs of this coming in the first half of the year before Germany’s
tariff reset in July drives a moderation in demand growth in C2H10. As solar stocks
have historically traded in-line with volume demand, we view this as a particularly
negative indicator for the group.
• Oversupply Likely Becomes a Major Issue In C2H10 as checks continue to suggest
that module makers are aggressively expanding capacity to chase market share even as
many admit that supply could soon be running ahead of demand given how fast the
industry is adding. To us, this feels eerily similar to what happened to the industry in
C2H08-C1H09 when the market was oversupplied by as much as 30% for several
quarters. In fact, we estimate that C2H10 oversupply could approach 3-4GWs on an
annualized basis, even worse than what occurred in the prior inventory correction.
• We Think Module ASPs Will Contract 20% – If Not More – In C2H10. This
should drive big margin compression and add significant risk to C10/C11 estimates as
many module makers will largely be through the bulk of their poly cost reductions by
mid-year and scaling of non-silicon costs will likely only provide a partial offset.
• Right Around The Corner Is Yet Another Subsidy Cut. On Jan 1, 2011 Germany
is expected to make yet another subsidy cut, somewhere in the 10% range as part of
the annual regression plan. This should add even further downside pressure on product
demand and margins over the next 12 months. We say enough is enough, and
recommend long-only investors look elsewhere, to LED and Wind themes, for
investment ideas.
• Downgrading FSLR and ENER to Underweight and ESLR to Neutral;
reiterating ASTI (N), WFR (UW), and AMAT (OW). We encourage investors
looking for alternative energy exposure to look to fundamentally stronger segments
such as LED (CREE/VECO) and Wind (see separate BWEN initiation).