【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本医疗行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Healthcare
Correction: Still Neutral,
Given Tough F3/11 Outlook
In-Line: F3/11 drug price and medical fee revisions
were released Mar 5. Price cuts by firm (avg. 6.5%)
depend on product mix, but are within expected range.
Overall medical fees edge up (+0.19%), but new
promotion of generics is the concern for drug makers
(impact of pharmacies fees where >20% of volume
dispensed is generics). At present, positive for generic
firms but with generics only 7-8% of market, little impact
overall; we made big forecast changes for generic firms
and Dainippon. Ratings unchanged, ranked: Shionogi,
Takeda, M-Tanabe, Astellas, Santen, Nichi-Iko.
F3/11 guidance to be bleak, given price cuts, patent
cliffs (esp. abroad), growth in alliance/R&D costs; hence
we stay In-Line. To change this requires clarity on the
results of new strategies (diversification, in-licensing/
alliances), cost-cut and systemic reform impact. After 2
years of struggles, valuations are up (avg. P/E in Japan/
US/European healthcare up from 11x spring '09 to 11-
13x end- Feb 2010), but no major inflection in sight. After
Apr-Jun, visibility to improve on generic penetration,
F3/11 guidance (several midterm plans), and US reform.
Obama’s administration is aiming to pass healthcare
reform by Easter, but in a year of midterm elections
Republican-based opposition remains firm. We see a
25-30% chance of passage. Global pharma valuations
have been gradually rising due cost cuts by the majors,
M&A-driven growth prospects (incl. push into emerging
markets) and US reform delay. Our European team’s
industry view is Attractive; our US team remains In-Line.
Upcoming events: System reform, plus new drugs,
business investment, cost cutting. New drugs to monitor:
Chugai’s RA Actemra (US approval Jan), Eisai’s sepsis
drug E5564 (NDA Apr-Jun), Takeda/Affymax’s anemia
drug Hematide (Ph3 data Apr-May), Shionogi/GSK’s
AIDS drug (data in summer) and Tanabe/Novartis’
FTY720 for MS (June approval). Astellas’ bid for OSI
Pharma and Takeda’s cash deployment also in focus.
Midterm plans coming for Daiichi Sankyo, Shionogi,
Astellas, Takeda (DSP, Kyowa Kirin already out).
Crestor patent suit also a key event (Shionogi/AZN).