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TRIPLE SCREEN UPDATE-《COME INTO MY TRADING ROOM》
lzxgz
4387 10
2010-03-20
One of the most pleasant encounters that occur several times each year is when a trader comes up to me at some conference and tells me how he started trading for a living after studying my book or participating in a Camp. At that point, he may be living and trading on a mountaintop, and as often as not he owns the mountaintop. I noticed long ago that half-way through our conversation these people become slightly apologetic. They tell me they use Triple Screen, but not exactly the way I taught it. They may have modified an indicator, added another screen, substituted a tool, and so forth. Whenever I hear that, I know I am talking to a winner.

First of all, I tell them they owe their success primarily to themselves. I did not teach them any differently than the dozens of others in the same class. Winners have the discipline to take what is offered and use it to succeed. Second, I see their apology for having changed some aspects of my system as an indication of their winning attitude. To benefit from a system, you must test its parameters and fine-tune them until that system becomes your own, even though originally it was developed by someone else. Winning takes discipline, discipline comes from confidence, and the only system in which you can have confidence is the one you have tested on your own data and adapted to your own style.

I developed the Triple Screen trading system in the mid-1980s and first presented it to the public in 1986 in an article in Futures magazine. I updated it in Trading for a Living and several videos. Here I will review it, focusing on recent enhancements.
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lzxgz
2010-3-20 17:56:26
What is a trading system? What’s the difference between a method, a system, and a technique?

A method is a general philosophy of trading. For example; trade with the trend, buy when the trend is up, and sell after it tops out. Or -buy undervalued markets, go long near historical support levels, and sell after resistance zones have been reached.

A system is a set of rules for implementing a method. For example, if our method is to follow trends, then the system may buy when a multi-week moving average turns up and sell when a daily moving average turns down (get in slow, get out fast). Or - buy when the weekly MACD-Histogram ticks up and sell after it ticks down.

A technique is a specific rule for entering or exiting trades. For example, when a system gives a buy signal, the technique could be to buy when prices exceed the high of the previous day or if prices make a new low during the day but close near the high.

The method of Triple Screen is to analyze markets in several time-frames and use both the trend-following indicators and oscillators. We make a strategic decision to trade long or short using trend-following indicators on long-term charts. We make tactical decisions to enter or exit using oscillators on shorter-term charts. The original method has not changed, but the system - the exact choice of indicators - has evolved over the years, as have the techniques.

Triple Screen examines each potential trade using three screens or tests. Each screen uses a different timeframe and indicators. These screens filter out many trades that seem attractive at first. Triple Screen promotes a careful and cautious approach to trading.
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lzxgz
2010-3-20 17:58:26
Conflicting Indicators
Technical indicators help identify trends or turns more objectively than chart patterns. Just keep in mind that when you change indicator parameters, you influence their signals. Be careful not to fiddle with indicators until they tell you what you want to hear.
We can divide all indicators into three major groups:
Trend-following indicators help identify trends. Moving averages, MACD lines, Directional system, and others rise when the markets are rising, decline when markets fall, and go flat when markets enter trading ranges.
Oscillators help catch turning points by identifying overbought and oversold conditions. Envelopes or channels, Force Index, Stochastic, Elder-ray, and others show when rallies or declines outrun themselves and are ready to reverse.

Miscellaneous indicators help gauge the mood of the market crowd. Bullish Consensus, Commitments of Traders, New High - New Low Index, and others reflect the general levels of bullishness or bearishness in the market.

Different groups of indicators often give conflicting signals. Trend-following indicators may turn up, telling us to buy, while oscillators become overbought, telling us to sell. Trend-following indicators may turn down, giving sell signals, while oscillators become oversold, giving buy signals. It is easy to fall into the trap of wishful thinking and start following those indicators whose message you like. A trader must set up a system that takes all groups of indicators into account and handles their contradictions.
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lzxgz
2010-3-20 18:00:21
Conflicting Timeframes
An indicator can call an uptrend and a downtrend in the same stock on the same day. How can this be? A moving average may rise on a weekly chart, giving a buy signal, but fall on a daily chart, giving a sell signal. It may rally on an hourly chart, telling us to go long, but sink on a 10-minute chart, telling us to short. Which of those signals should we take?

Amateurs reach for the obvious. They grab a single timeframe, most often daily, apply their indicators and ignore other timeframes. This works only until a major move swells up from the weeklies or a sharp spike erupts from the hourly charts and flips their trade upside down. Whoever said that ignorance was bliss was not a trader.

People who have lost money with daily charts often imagine they could do better by speeding things up and using live data. If you cannot make money with dailies, a live screen will only help you lose faster. Screens hypnotize losers, but a determined one can get even closer to the market by renting a seat and going to trade on the floor. Pretty soon a margin clerk for the clearing house notices that the new trader’s equity has dropped below limit. He sends a runner into the pit who taps that person on the shoulder. The loser steps out and is never seen again - he has “tapped out.”

The problem with losers is not that their data is too slow, but their decision-making process is a mess. To resolve the problem of conflicting timeframes, you should not get your face closer to the market, but push yourself further away, take a broad look at what’s happening, make a strategic decision to be a bull or a bear, and only then return closer to the market and look for entry and exit points. That’s what Triple Screen is all about.

What is long term and what is short term? Triple Screen avoids rigid definitions by focusing instead on the relationships between time-frames. It requires you to begin by choosing your favorite timeframe, which it calls intermediate. If you like to work with daily charts, your intermediate timeframe is daily. If you are a day-trader and like five-minute charts, then your intermediate timeframe is the five-minute chart, and so on.

Triple Screen defines the long term by multiplying the intermediate timeframe by five (see “Time - The Factor of Five,” page xx). If your intermediate timeframe is daily, then your long-term timeframe is weekly. If your intermediate timeframe is five minutes, then your long-term is half-hourly, and so forth. Choose your favorite timeframe, call it intermediate, and immediately move up one order of magnitude to a long-term chart. Make your strategic decision there, and return to the intermediate chart to look for entries and exits.
The key principle of Triple Screen is to begin your analysis by stepping back from the markets and looking at the big picture for strategic decisions. Use a long-term chart to decide whether you are bullish or bearish, and then return closer to the market to make tactical choices about entries and exits.
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lzxgz
2010-3-20 18:02:19
The Principles of Triple Screen
Triple Screen resolves contradictions between indicators and time-frames. It reaches strategic decisions on long-term charts, using trend-following indicators - this is the first screen. It proceeds to make tactical decisions about entries and exits on the intermediate charts, using oscillators - this is the second screen. It offers several methods for placing buy and sell orders - this is the third screen, which we may implement using either intermediate - or short-term charts.

Begin by choosing your favorite timeframe, the one with whose charts you like to work, and call it intermediate. Multiply its length by five to find your long-term timeframe. Apply trend-following indicators to long-term charts to reach a strategic decision to go long, short, or stand aside. Standing aside is a legitimate position. If the long-term chart is bullish or bearish, return to the intermediate charts and use oscillators to look for entry and exit points in the direction of the long-term trend. Set stops and profit targets before switching to short-term charts, if available, to fine-tune entries and exits.

SCREEN ONE
Choose your favorite timeframe and call it intermediate. Multiply it by five to find the long-term timeframe. Let’s say you prefer to work with daily charts. In that case, move immediately one level higher, to the weekly chart. Do not permit yourself to peek at the dailies because this may color your analysis of weekly charts. If you are a day-trader, you might choose a 10-minute chart as your favorite, call it intermediate, and then immediately move up to the hourly chart, approximately five times longer. Rounding off is not a problem; technical analysis is a craft, not an exact science. If you are a long-term investor, you might choose a weekly chart as your favorite and then go up to the monthly.

Apply trend-following indicators to the long-term chart and make a strategic decision to trade long, short, or stand aside. The original version of Triple Screen used the slope of weekly MACD-Histogram as its weekly trend-following indicator. It was very sensitive and gave many buy and sell signals. I now prefer to use the slope of a weekly exponential moving average as my main trend-following indicator on long-term charts. When the weekly EMA rises, it confirms a bull move and tells us to go long or stand aside. When it falls, it identifies a bear move and tells us to go short or stand aside. I use a 26-week EMA, which represents half a year of trading. You can test several different lengths to see which tracks your market best, as you would with any indicator.

I continue to plot weekly MACD-Histogram. When both EMA and MACD-Histogram are in gear, they confirm a dynamic trend and encourage you to trade larger positions. Divergences between weekly MACD-Histogram and prices are the strongest signals in technical analysis, which override the message of the EMA.


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lzxgz
2010-3-20 18:04:26
SCREEN TWO
Return to the intermediate chart and use oscillators to look for trading opportunities in the direction of the long-term trend. When the weekly trend is up, wait for daily oscillators to fall, giving buy signals. Buying dips is safer than buying the crests of waves. If an oscillator gives a sell signal while the weekly trend is up, you may use it to take profits on long positions but not to sell short.

When the weekly trend is down, look for daily oscillators to rise, giving sell signals. Shorting during upwaves is safer than selling new lows. When daily oscillators give buy signals, you may use them to take profits on shorts but not to buy. The choice of oscillators depends on your trading style.

For conservative traders, choose a relatively slow oscillator, such as daily MACD-Histogram or Stochastic, for the second screen. When the weekly trend is up, look for daily MACD-Histogram to fall below zero and tick up, or for Stochastic to fall to its lower reference line, giving a buy signal.

For conservative traders, choose a relatively slow oscillator, such as daily MACD-Histogram or Stochastic, for the second screen. When the weekly trend is up, look for daily MACD-Histogram to fall below zero and tick up, or for Stochastic to fall to its lower reference line, giving a buy signal.

A conservative approach works best during early stages of major moves, when markets gather speed slowly. As the trend accelerates, pullbacks become more shallow. To hop aboard a fast-running trend, you need faster oscillators.

For active traders, use the two-day EMA of Force Index (or longer, if that’s what your research suggests for your market). When the weekly trend is up and daily Force Index falls below zero, it flags a buying opportunity.

The second screen is where we set profit targets and stops and make a go–no go decision about every trade after weighing the level of risk against the potential gain.

Set the stops. A stop is a safety net, which limits the damage from any bad trade. You have to structure your trading in such a way that no single bad loss, or a nasty series of losses, can damage your account. Stops are essential for success, but many traders shun them. Beginners complain about getting whipsawed, stopped out of trades that eventually would have made them money. Some say that putting in a stop means asking for trouble because no matter where you put it, it will be hit.
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