【出版时间及名称】：JPM-ALTERNATIVE ENERGY-WIND PRIMER-A STABLE SUBSIDY ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO DRIVE STRONG GROWTH OF THE US WIND MARKET OVER THE NEXT 3 YEARS-100309
      【作者】：jpmorgan
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：31
      【目录或简介】：
The US Wind Market has grown at a rapid 47% CAGR over the past 10 years and is now
the largest in the world in spite of inconsistent subsidy support over the past decade.
Strong wind resources across many regions of the country create many favorable wind
development locations that continue to be exploited. At the end of 2009, a total of 35GW
of cumulative wind capacity had been installed in the US with Texas the leading
developer of wind with nearly 10GW of capacity. Iowa is now the #2 state for wind
development, recently surpassing California. Overall, 14 states now each have over 1GW
of wind-generating capacity installed.
• The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) Refund has Improved Wind Project
Economics and Reduced Risk. This new subsidy and its cash refund variation is
credited with continued growth of installed wind capacity in 2009 in spite of the
impact of the global credit crunch. Although the ITC is scheduled to expire at the end
of 2010, projects that start construction before the end of the year can still qualify if
they complete construction by the end of 2012. We think this will drive significant
wind project momentum in C2H10 as wind developers rush to get projects underway
before the end of the year. We also believe this momentum will result in significant
growth in installed wind capacity in 2011 and 2012.
• We Believe the Excess Inventory of Wind Turbines Will Be Drawn Down by
mid-2010. We also believe the order outlook for the wind supply chain will begin to
improve significantly in C2H10 as developers not only push forward projects before
year-end ITC expiration, but also take advantage of lower overall costs for wind
turbines. This is being driven by reduced commodity costs for materials used in wind
turbines plus excess manufacturing inventory, the combination of which we believe
will help to drive down the cost of a wind turbine installation from approximately
$2.0mn/MW in 2008 to below $1.5mn/MW in C2H10-C2012.
• Transmission Will Be A Limiting Factor…Eventually, however, we do not believe
this will significantly impact capacity growth over the next three years. It is our view
that there are sufficient favorable wind sites across the US that will allow the industry
to grow at a 25%+ CAGR over the next three years. Undoubtedly, significant
transmission infrastructure will be needed to grow wind capacity to 20%+ of the
overall electricity supply for the country, but given that wind only represented 2.0%-
2.5% of the nation’s electricity production in 2009, it’s likely to be a number of years
before this becomes a constraining issue.
• LED and Wind Themes Are Our Top Alternative Energy Picks and we
recommend