【出版时间及名称】：MIRAE-CHINA REAL ESTATE-GOLDILOCKS IN THE HOUSE-100317
      【作者】：mirae assets
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：70
      【目录或简介】：
MIRAE-CHINA REAL ESTATE-GOLDILOCKS IN THE HOUSE-100317Goldilocks wanted: from too hot to just right............................................4
Lessons learnt – striking the balance 4
Real estate investment rise, a 2H09 phenomenon 4
How “bubblicious” is China? 6
China vis-à-vis 1997 Hong Kong 6
China vis-à-vis Japan’s 1990-91 property bubble 8
Effects of credit moderation.....................................................................10
Tighter mortgages and lower liquidity for the developers 10
Mortgage policies leaning on the tighter side 11
Policy noise: think disruption, not destruction.........................................12
Reacting to the public outcry 12
Verdict for 2010: stable prices, minor supply uptick................................13
2010 physical market indicators 13
Our physical market assumptions for 2010 and 2011 16
Stock-picking criteria 16
Pricing developers: the science of déjà vu 18
We are Neutral on Chinese developers.....................................................19
Target NAV trading range set at +5% to -30% 19
China Overseas Land (COLI): Leader of the pack – BUY – TP: HK$19.6 20
CR Land: A blue chip developer – HOLD – TP: HK$18.2 20
Glorious: Pricing the Shanghai niche – BUY – TP: HK$3.8 21
KWG: Phenomenal growth – BUY – TP: HK$6.6 21
Longfor: The price of quality – HOLD – TP: HK$8.90 22
Guangzhou R&F: The beta play – BUY – TP: HK$14.5 22
Shimao: Quality diversified developer – BUY – TP: HK$16.5 23
Sino Ocean Land: Waiting to excel – HOLD – TP: HK$7.8 23
Company Section
China Overseas Land (688 HK, BUY): Leader of the pack...........................................25
China Resources Land (1109 HK, BUY): A blue chip developer...................................30
Glorious Properties (845 HK, BUY): Pricing the Shanghai niche...................................35
KWG Property (1813 HK, BUY): Phenomenal growth..................................................40
Longfor Property (960 HK, HOLD): The price of quality..............................................45
GZ R&F (2777 HK, HOLD): The beta play....................................................................50
Shimao Property (813 HK, BUY): Quality diversified developer.....................................55
Sino Ocean Land (3377 HK, HOLD): Waiting to excel..................................................60
Appendices................................................................................................65
1. Monthly transaction data by cities 65
2. Volume and ASP comparisons between trough and peak levels 66
3. Affordability 67
4. Local policies initiated since mid-2008 68
Analyst team profile..................................................................................69