【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：41
        【目录或简介】：

There is a right amount of debt
Balance sheet leverage may still be uncomfortable for some but we don't think it
will be long before capital management will need to be reconsidered. In this note,
we examine the debt position of the consumer stocks and potential excess
capacity. JB Hi-Fi, David Jones, Foster's and Woolworths stand out with the
largest debt capacity on traditional metrics. However, if we capitalise operating
leases, the retailers do not screen as well. JB Hi-Fi and Foster's combine debt
capacity, a reasonable chance of returning cash and a positive fundamental view.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
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LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Company Update
Top picks
Foster's (FGL.AX),AUD5.33 Buy
Billabong (BBG.AX),AUD10.30 Buy
JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH.AX),AUD19.76 Buy
Wesfarmers Ltd (WES.AX),AUD31.55 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Consumer balance sheets are in good shape
While leverage has been widely blamed for the global financial crisis, balance
sheets in our sector (with a few exceptions) never looked particularly stretched.
Excesses in personal, government and certain corporate sectors created the
impression that leverage is a bad thing. But there is still an optimal level of debt.
With recovering asset prices, earnings and cash flows, we think that it is only a
matter of time before investors will expect to see some tension restored to
balance sheets. We have also considered the impact of off balance sheet
financing through operating leases which will become more important if
accounting standards for lessee accounting change as expected.
JB Hi-Fi, David Jones, Foster’s and Woolworths are the stand outs
We have examined the balance sheets of our stocks using traditional gearing
metrics to identify potential excess debt capacity. In our opinion, most stocks in
the sector could borrow at a rate that would allow an earnings accretive buyback
or access additional debt to fund a special dividend. In the food and beverage
sector, Foster’s and Coke Amatil appear to have the capacity to return cash to
shareholders. In food retail, Woolworths’ balance sheet looks increasing
inefficient. But if operating leases are capitalised and its strong desire to maintain
its credit rating is considered, the debt capacity is somewhat lower. In
discretionary retail, we expect JB Hi-Fi to be cash positive within the next financial
year. So despite significant operating lease commitments, it is difficult to argue it
could not support higher levels of debt. David Jones already has its CBD
properties on balance sheet and low levels of debt which compares favourably to
Myer which has higher levels of debt and only operating leases. But the metrics
for both stocks change significantly when operating leases are capitalized.
Valuation and risks
We value all of our stocks using DCF’s and use multiples as a sense check. Our
DCF’s all incorporate a risk free rate of 6.25%, an equity risk premium of 6%,
terminal growth rates of 2-3% and target capital structures of 20-30%. Betas are
company specific. Common risks to the sector include the strength of the
Australian consumer, asset prices (housing and stock market) impacting consumer
confidence and the strength of the Australian dollar.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
A lot can happen in a year ................................................................ 5
Food and beverage............................................................................ 6
Food retailers ................................................................................... 11
Discretionary retail .......................................................................... 15
Gearing capacity: it depends who you ask ................................... 20
Franking credits.......................................................................................................................22
Company pages ............................................................................... 24
Appendix A....................................................................................... 37
Woolworths worked example.................................................................................................37
Appendix B....................................................................................... 38
Existing capital management policies .....................................................................................38