【出版时间及名称】：2010年2季度中国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：凯基证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：90
        【目录或简介】：
Systemic risk surpasses policy risk
􀅜 Less risk of macro control measures in 2Q10. Rapid property price rises have been
reined in. Food prices also won’t rise sharply, reducing inflation risk.
􀅜 Interest rate hikes will have a minor impact on the stock market.
􀅜 Systemic or market risk negative for 2Q10 outlook
􀂾 Overseas recovery will be slow
􀂾 China facing economic decline in 2H10
􀂾 IPO/ refinancing will constrain liquidity further
􀅜 Takeaways from the two big conferences
􀂾 Monetary policy tighter in 2Q10 to rein in inflation
􀂾 Renminbi won’t appreciate
􀂾 Domestic consumption the key growth driver
􀂾 Policies more positive in 2H10
􀅜 Margin trading and futures business will have little impact on the stock market
􀅜 We have raised our new loans increase estimate from Rmb6-8tn to Rmb8-9tn in 2010.
New loans will increase more in 2H10.
􀅜 Our SSE target range is 2,800-3,200 points in 2Q10. We like housing materials and
auto components sectors, and suggest investors employ a bargain hunting strategy in
big cap stocks.

Systemic risk surpasses policy risk
Policy risk reduced
Since late 4Q09, we have seen a series of tightening policies in the
property market and on liquidity flow. In 1H-March, housing
transactions in Shanghai and Beijing declined 40-50% from 2009.
The central bank (People’s Bank of China, or PBC) raised the reserve
ratio twice in 1Q10 and is expected to raise interest rates in late
March/ April. Banks’ new loans dropped from Rmb1.4tn in January
to Rmb700bn in February. First mortgage discount has narrowed
from 30% to 15%. House prices are stabilizing, reducing inflation
expectation. Thus, new tightening policies will be of reduced
magnitude in 2Q10.
Systemic risk increased
China’s GDP growth target remains 8.0% in 2010. If the
government continues reining in the property market and tightening
liquidity, 2010 GDP growth may fall below 8.0%. Thus, we don’t
expect policies will go beyond the current level. However, systemic
or market risk will surpass policy risk in 2Q10. Our basic assumptions
are: (1) overseas recovery will be slow, and both the Chinese and
overseas economies will experience economic slowdown in
2H10-1H11; (2) uncertainty surrounding domestic demand in China,
specifically declining infrastructure investment and export weakness;
and (3) IPOs and re-financing will increase in 2Q10, and the biggest
sell off of restricted shares will come in the quarter. Also, we don’t
expect tightening policy to be changed. Together with greater
systemic risk, SSE will continue to consolidate in 2Q10.
Positive expectations will wane
In 1Q10, SSE and SZE were at one point both down 10%, and
Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 big caps 12%. However, some small and
mid cap stocks rose 10-15%, in line with our expectation that these
stocks will outperform in 2010. However, in 2Q10, small and mid
cap stocks will face increased selling pressure. Alternative energy
and IT stocks are the mainstream plays in the small and mid cap
group. Better-than-expected 4Q09 and 1Q10 results and the two
big conferences in China led stocks surging. However, demand
could disappoint as US/EU recovery won’t be strong. Small and mid
cap stock valuations won’t be justified by fundamentals in 2H10.
Moreover, with positives already factored in to these stocks,
expectations will wane and the shares will start looking expensive.
Margin & futures trading
Margin and futures trading will be introduced in 2Q10. We think
the impact on the financial markets will be minor. Based on Taiwan’s
experience, these new investment channels will be limited to a small
pool of participants. We don’t expect margin and futures trading
will drive strong demand for blue chips or Shanghai/Shenzhen 300
stocks, but they will provide downside support in 2Q10.
Bargain hunting opportunities to come
In 2Q10, Chinese blue chips will attract attention for their low
valuation and their correction will not be as severe as in 1Q10. But
this does not mean they will rise. Weak liquidity conditions will
weigh on blue chip performance in 2Q10. However, there will be
bargain hunting opportunities in blue chips in 2Q-3Q10 as we
expect the liquidity outlook to improve in 2H10. Domestic demand
will be the main driver in 2Q10. Our top picks in 2Q10 are
manufacturers of materials and components used in housing
construction and automobile manufacturing.