【出版时间及名称】：2010年2季度台湾证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：凯基证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：91
        【目录或简介】：
In 2Q10, we expect the Taiex to consolidate before picking up steam again later in the
year. The index will soon start to factor in some of the major concerns that investors
have about economic conditions in 2010. At present, investors’ key concerns are: (1)
the compromised growth outlook of the tech sector as a result of inventory
adjustment and the basing effect; (2) the likelihood of interest rate rises in China; and
(3) the possible beaten-down US housing market due to the ending of the stimulus
program.
􀂄 The Taiex is currently trading at a 2010 PE of 13.6x, still at the lower end of the
historical trading range. The P/B ratio is 1.8x, also not too demanding as compared to
the 2000-present range of 1.0-2.8x. Our forecast of a 2010 cash dividend yield of
3.8% for the Taiex is attractive. Such a rich cash dividend yield will provide strong
support to the index.
􀂄 We forecast the Taiex will trade in a range between 7,000 points (2010 PE of 12.2x
and P/B of 1.6x) and 7,800 points (2010 PE of 13.6x and P/B of 1.8x) in 2Q10.
However, we have maintained our strong corporate earnings growth forecast of 81%
in 2010. Assuming low interest rate and abundant liquidity conditions continue, and
that bearish news loses its bite and 2H10 outlook turns positive, our 2010 target for
the Taiex is 8,700 points (2010 PE of 15.2x and P/B of 2.0x).
􀂄 We have identified three investment themes for 2Q10: (1) high dividend yield plays,
which we see as a good bet during current uncertain market conditions; (2) the
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which is on the agenda for the
fifth Taiwan-China meeting slated to convene in 2Q10. The petrochemicals, auto
parts, machinery, textiles and financial sectors will likely be in the spotlight; and (3)
China concept stocks, which will benefit as China seeks balanced economic growth by
putting domestic consumption on the front burner through 2010
􀂄 Our top stock picks under these themes: Asia Polymer (1308.TW), Tong Yang
(1319.TW), Makalot (1477.TW), Ta Yih (1521.TW), Cheng Loong (1904.TW), Yulon
Nissan (2227.TW), Compal (2324.TW), Fubon FHC (2881.TW), Cathay FHC (2882.TW),
Les Enphants (2911.TW), Wistron (3231.TW), Lumax (6192.TW) and Taiwan Hon
Chuan (9939.TW).

Taiwan market strategy
Engage selectively within fluctuating range 1
Theme reports
High dividend yield plays: Safe place to park money 1 3
Asia Polymer (1308.TW/1308 TT): Undervalued on EVA outlook & high dividend yield 14
Makalot Industrial (1477.TW/1477 TT): Riding on uptrend in apparel outsourcing 17
Cheng Loong (1904.TW/1904 TT): Prices & volume recovering 20
Compal Electronics (2324.TW/2324 TT): Strong orders & non-op income offset margin squeeze 23
Wistron (3231.TW/3231 TT): Favorable product mix eases margin pressure 26
Lumax International (6192.TW/6192 TT): Economic recovery theme play 29
ECFA to be inked in 1H10: ECFA beneficiaries 32
Ta Yih Industrial (1521.TW/1521 TT): ECFA beneficiary & high cash dividend yield 3 8
Fubon FHC (2881.TW/2881 TT): Strengthening profitability & proactive China strategy 4 1
Cathay FHC (2882.TW/2882 TT): Ahead in life insurance & banking markets 44
China concept stocks: Riding on demand growth in China 47
Tong Yang Industry (1319.TW/1319 TT): Beneficiary of auto industry consolidation in China 54
Yulon Nissan (2227.TW/2227 TT): Top China play in auto space 57
Les Enphants (2911.TW/2911 TT): An entrenched China play 60
Taiwan Hon Chuan (9939.TW/9939 TT): Beneficiary of growing beverage market in China 63
Stock market
Cash calls and cash supply 6 9
Portfolio weightings 7 0
Taiwan economy
Moderate growth 7 2
Appendices
Summary of US economic indicators 7 6
Summary of Taiwan economic indicators 7 7
Market valuation 7 8
Sector performance 7 9
Stock performance 8 1
Stock screens – Value stocks 8 2
Stock screen – Growth stocks 8 3
Stock screens – Short stocks 8 4
Changes to earnings estimates 8 5
Changes to investment ratings 8 6
KGI universe valuation table 8 7