【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球通信设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：142
        【目录或简介】：
mobile computers (MCs or “smartphones”). Smartphone prices look likely to
drop but we find that price elasticity is high and believe this bodes well for
industry health. We expect rapid user experience changes to make competitors
that integrate hardware and software more attractive over the next 2-3 years. As
devices proliferate, wireless royalties and semi sales should also benefit. We
assume coverage of QCOM with an Overweight rating and initiate coverage of
MOT with an Underweight rating. We upgrade both Nokia and RIMM to
Overweight (from Neutral).
• High smartphone price elasticity. We find that at a smartphone ASP of
$350 every 1pp decrease in price will result in about a 4pp increase in unit
shipments and cause industry revenues to expand. Vendors like Nokia who
can leverage scale at lower prices should benefit.
• Adoption modeling points to upside. Our proprietary adoption modeling
predicts MC shipments that are 23-31% greater than our 266m unit estimate
for 2010 which is up 51% on 2009. Our models also imply a potential for
catch-up post sub-normal adoption during the downturn.
• It’s better to be vertical than horizontal. This is generally true in life but
we believe particularly so for MC vendors over the next 2-3 years. We believe
that user experience complexity will grow and weigh in favor of those
companies that can control and deliver superior integration through vertical
integration of software and hardware. This puts Android on more equal
footing with other platforms for the next 2-3 years.
• Push is coming. Mobile advertising can quickly become an important
platform differentiator. We expect content to increasingly be given away for
free and eventually see content and advertising converging. Our analysis
suggests that today Google and Apple are well positioned but that Nokia,
RIM, and Palm all have varying degrees of opportunity.
• Handset market to grow 13.1%, smartphones 51%. With replacement
demand being a big driver, we forecast 13.1% growth in handsets in 2010 to
1.29bn units. Forecast MC growth of 51% implies that these will account for
21% of the market, up from 15% in 2009.
• Stocks: QCOMM (OW, PT $48) is well positioned given the strength of both
its royalty and semiconductor businesses. MOT (UW, PT $6) comes with
baggage of equipment business and other options may be less risky. Nokia’s
(OW, PT