【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：41
        【目录或简介】：
Revenue to rise in F3/12: As ARPU falls slow, we
expect cellular revenue (subscribers x ARPU) to turn up
in F3/12. We expect the earnings climate to turn for the
better, assuming just 1% growth entails a ¥70.0 bn boost
in overall industry revenue.
Upgrade NTT DOCOMO to OW: Our top pick among
wireless names now, for high potential. We think
NTT DOCOMO’s fairly advanced network places it best
to benefit from demand for speed and high performance.
The firm is also putting efforts into smartphone and
datacard sales, and we expect its cellular revenue to
turn up to +0.2% in F3/12 from -2.8% in F3/11. Current
share price levels imply continued falls in sales/profits
(see our analysis of implied stock price levels on pg. 6).
We believe valuation will rise as revenue growth
becomes apparent, and lift to OW with a ¥175,000 PT.
High-end data services poised to expand: Data
demand is an important growth market. As social
networking advances, demand for faster cellular
communications is growing too. We expect datacard
and smartphone subscribers to increase by 24%
annually, from 5.4mn in F3/10 to 20.0mn by F3/16. But
we still expect ordinary handsets to be used more for full
browsing. We view the smartphone role as one to
bolster line-ups of high-performance handsets.
ARPU fall to slow, data overtaking voice in F3/13:
We expect ARPU to fall by 1% annually in the next 5
years (past 5yr avg. -7%). We expect data ARPU to rise
2% on average per year, a solid advance considering
dilution by low-level users.