【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚太科技行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：27
        【目录或简介】：
Fundamentals strong. While tech outperformed Asia quite smartly last year,
in the first quarter the sector has been more of a market-performer, even
lagging in some weeks. This has raised a variety of concerns and we try to
address them in this report. We continue to believe that the overall dynamics
for tech – demand, supply and inventory – are very supportive of a bullish
view, and that already is showing up in the strong performance of global (US,
Japan) tech sectors; the Asian tech sector should catch up soon.
■
Both earnings and valuations have upside. Earnings estimates,
particularly for upstream tech sub-sectors, have meaningful upside as the
street continues to underestimate operating margin leverage and the
duration for which supply tightness is likely to last. Valuations for the sector
are still in the middle of their post-2001 ranges and leave room for expansion
given the strength of the cycle. Hence, we are of the view that investors will
end up making money on both counts in tech over the next six months.
■
Portfolio view. Given the dynamics of low inventory, tight supply and
continued demand strength, clearly upstream names are where we have
most of our portfolio weightings – memory, TFT, back-end. Downstream
should also have strong revenue momentum but margins are an incremental
concern given input cost increases. Indian IT is seeing a strong demand
pick-up and an excellent medium-term story, though valuations and currency
strength may start to weigh somewhat on the performance. See page 4 for
the portfolio.