【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：

Tightening fears a buying opportunity
as 2Q peak demand season approaches
 Triggered by surging prices, domestic
iron ore output is making a comeback
 Reiterate OW steel and coal shares, stay
cautious on base metal exposures
Chinese supply could crash the iron ore party – positive for
steel. As imported prices surge towards USD150/t (cfr), we
focus in this Monitor on China’s domestic iron ore miners.
Squeezed out by low iron ore prices last year, domestic iron ore
mines supplied less than 30% of China’s steel mill
requirements. However, at current imported prices nearly all
domestic mines are profitable, which we estimate could unleash
c220mt (at 63% Fe) of supply this year. Equivalent to about
one-third of last year’s imports, this additional supply could
bring China’s self sufficiency back to historic levels of c50%
and place downward pressure on iron ore prices. In this
scenario, profit margins for steel mills may benefit from a move
to shorter-dated, market-based iron ore price contracts.
Seasonally weaker 1Q now behind us, 2Q peak demand
season commencing. Major end-use activity of metals
remained robust in the first two months of the year despite a
seasonal drop, but activity should firm as we enter the peak
demand season. Construction projects are now picking up post
Chinese New Year, with PMI data pointing to continued
strength in industrial production.
Imports recover in February as output surges. After a
surprise fall in imports in January, imports recovered in
February for copper and iron ore. However, it was the surge in
domestic metals production in February that caught us by
surprise. On an annualised basis, record levels of production
were reached for steel, copper and aluminium. For copper and
aluminium, where China was a major importer last year, rising
Chinese output is negative to global balances.
Early stages of tightening cycle typically a buying
opportunity. Tightening fears have seen the sector
underperform the overall market so far this year. However, the
early stages of a tightening cycle are typically buying
opportunities for the sector as underlying fundamentals exceed
expectations. We remain bullish on steel and coal shares but
stay cautious on base metals.

The Great Wall of worry 3
China supply could crash the
iron ore party 8
China ‘real’ demand model 13
End-user trends 15
Commodities review 21
China demand drivers 29
Steel – Record production 37
Iron ore – Imports low as
domestic grades recover 45
Coal – Winter bites 47
Aluminium – Up, up and away 53
Copper – Imports find their
way into stocks 59
Zinc – Imports downtrend
resumes 65
Nickel – Decrease in apparent
demand 69
Lead – Trade activity
remained subdued 71
Tin – Imports rise 73
Disclosure appendix 76
Disclaimer 79
Contents