【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲电缆行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：107
        【目录或简介】：

Cable Industry
Current accelerating. Initiate
on Prysmian/Nexans w/Buy
Luis Fañanas
Research Analyst
(+34) 91 3355931
luis.fananas@db.com
Frederic Caumon
Research Analyst
(+33) 1 44 95 66 31
frederic.caumon@db.com
Peter Reilly
Research Analyst
(+44) 20 754-59835
peter.reilly@db.com
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading
Deutsche Bank Company Research's Research Committee has deemed this work
F.I.T.T. for investors seeking differentiated ideas. Here our Capital Goods team
provides exceptional insight into the global cable Industry. It concludes that the
two leading global cable companies will likely be beneficiaries of the mega trend in
the transmission market, which is about to begin.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
FITT Research
Top picks
Prysmian (PRY.MI),EUR13.90 Buy
Nexans (NEXS.PA),EUR60.45 Buy
Companies featured
Prysmian (PRY.MI),EUR13.90 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EUR) 1.11 1.15 1.43
P/E (x) 9.6 12.1 9.7
EV/EBITA (x) 6.2 8.6 6.9
Nexans (NEXS.PA),EUR60.45 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EUR) 4.36 4.23 4.35
P/E (x) 10.1 14.3 13.9
EV/EBITA (x) 5.6 6.3 4.5
Target Price
Company TP Current pr. Upside
Prysmian E21.00 E13.90 51%
Nexans E89.00 E59.00 51%
Fundamental: Exceptional growth around the corner. Switch-on!
We think the prospects for the global power cable industry are very positive. We
anticipate rising investment in underground connections, larger/new submarine links
and further interconnections between regions, especially in the US and Europe. The
incorporation of renewable energies into the generation network should also be a major
positive driver. There are also good growth prospects in emerging markets, where
rising electricity consumption will require rising investments in infrastructure.
Industry: A profound transformation
The cable industry has undergone a deep and successful transformation over the last
decade, led by Nexans and Prysmian. The combination of consolidation, restructuring
and a focus on higher-value added segments has made the industry structurally more
profitable. Even in 2009, the worst recession in decades, the cable industry achieved
returns in line with its cost of capital, compared to the low single digit returns it earned
in 2002.
Thematic: A mega trend is just starting in the transmission field
We identify four drivers that will lead to a mega trend in the transmission field: 1) the
incorporation of renewable energy to the system (driving a new/radically different
electricity infrastructure scheme); 2) the rapid industrialization of emerging
economies, which requires grid investments; 3) European Union’s aim to integrate
the full electricity grid; and 4) the ageing EU/US transmission grid. These factors
are already driving significant investment in transmission, but we believe we are at the
early stages of a mega trend that will last until 2030. We think the US, Europe and
China are serious about making their electrical infrastructure greener, as can be seen
from the rapid growth on wind energy.
Thought leading: Global and specialized players will be the main beneficiaries
The market today is, in our view, ignoring the outstanding prospects for transmission.
We estimate that Nexans and Prysmian make 70-75% of their EBIT in power cables
and are therefore exceptionally well placed to benefit. Barriers to entry in this segment
are high and the most critical issue (a successful track record in complex projects) is
inherently hard to replicate. We expect to see rising tender activity in coming quarters,
which should help to change the market perception of these stocks.
Valuation and risks: New and fiercer competition is the key risk to sustaining
returns
We initiate coverage of Nexans with a Buy rating (E89 TP) and Prysmian with a Buy
rating (E21 TP). We use 2011 EV/EBITA multiple to derive those TP, 8.5x for Nexans
and 10x for Prysmian, as we do with capital goods stocks. The two companies have
premier positions in the power cable niche (representing ~70% of ’09 EBIT) and both
have a combined market share of around 40/45% in submarine cables and up to
~30/35% in HV underground. New/fiercer competition, delay in investments in
transmission, volatility in raw materials’ (copper/aluminium), anti-trust litigation, and
project / restructuring execution are key risks.

Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Nexans (Buy; TP E89) / Prysmian (Buy; TP E21).............................. 9
Competitive landscape ................................................................... 15
Prysmian........................................................................................... 18
Nexans.............................................................................................. 30
Cable industry analysis ................................................................... 40
Industry trends: global view........................................................... 42
Power cable: the key field............................................................... 50
Telecommunications cable ............................................................. 62
Construction cable .......................................................................... 69
Industrial segments......................................................................... 72
Nexans in detail ............................................................................... 77
Accounts........................................................................................... 94
Appendix A: Financials.................................................................... 95