<P >假设你获得一次玩抛硬币游戏的机会。若你猜对硬币出现的面，则可赢得<FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元。那么直接支付你多少钱，你愿意放弃玩此游戏的机会？（请选择）</P>
<P ><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P >传统的风险偏好分析以<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元为分界相对应的关系为<FONT face="Times New Roman"><5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>——<FONT face="Times New Roman">risk evasion;=5,000</FONT>——<FONT face="Times New Roman">risk indifference;>5,000</FONT>——<FONT face="Times New Roman">risk preference</FONT>。但我认为这是纯粹的数学的分析，要求直接支付<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元的人实际也是<FONT face="Times New Roman">risk preference</FONT>。</P>
<P ><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P >因为边际效用递减的缘故，把<FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元划分为两个<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元，前一个<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元的效用必然大于后者。换句话说，把<FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元划分为效用相当的两部分，前一份将小于<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元，而后一份大于<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>元。那么在前述的游戏中双方都假定为<FONT face="Times New Roman">risk indifference</FONT>的话，他们最终达成的直接支付的金额将会小于<FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">000</FONT>。</P>