【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
 We expect steel mill margins to keep
rising despite a substantial raw-material
cost push of cUSD115/t
 Higher raw-material costs should help
ArcelorMittal most; ThyssenKrupp’s
FYQ3 to be negatively impacted
 We maintain our Overweight (V) ratings
on ArcelorMittal and ThyssenKrupp and
downgrade Voestalpine to Neutral (V).
Top pick: ArcelorMittal
Separating cause and a correlation
We believe the debate in European steel is shifting from
volume recovery to prices and margins, which is the focus of
this report. Volumes are recovering, not primarily because of
restocking, in our view, but because steel production is
returning to the level of underlying consumption. Now that
this is occurring, the next controversy is the impact of rawmaterial
prices (iron ore, coking coal and scrap) on margins.
There are two schools of thought on the impact on margins.
One is that it will be negative, as demand is still weak and
pricing power is low. The other is that it will be positive, as
historic margins are highly correlated with raw-material
costs. We believe both viewpoints are wrong. Our analysis
suggests the impact of higher raw-material prices will be
passed through to consumers, which will be neutral to unintegrated
steelmakers but a positive catalyst for those with
captive raw materials.
At the micro level, we see some negative impact in calendar
Q2 from higher raw material prices for ThyssenKrupp (TK)
and expect ArcelorMittal (AM) to be the prime beneficiary.
We expect a surprisingly positive Q2 outlook statement and
consensus upgrades ahead.
We forecast HRC costs to increase by cUSD123 y-o-y to
cUSD660/t in 2010. Assuming an average 2010 EBITDA
margin of USD100/t, in line with the recovery year 2004,
further normalising to USD150/t in 2011e, triggers an
upward revision in our 2010 HRC forecasts by 11% to
USD721/t and 2011e by 2% to USD788/t.