【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：
Our oil sector view remains neutral
We mark to market 1Q10 crude oil price forecasts and raise them for the
remainder of the period. However, we continue to see risks on the downside for
the current high level of crude oil prices. Hence, our neutral view on the Russian
oil sector and continued preference to gas names Novatek and Gazprom. In this
report, we revise estimates, price targets and investment ratings. For a detailed
list of these changes, see pages 4-9.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Companies featured
Gazprom (GAZP.RTS),USD5.48 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 1.19 1.01 1.24
P/E (x) 8.7 5.4 4.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.0 4.8 3.9
Novatek (NVTKq.L),USD74.40 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 2.77 4.29 6.03
P/E (x) 15.0 17.3 12.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 12.1 8.5
Rosneft (ROSN.RTS),USD7.73 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 0.68 0.96 1.05
P/E (x) 8.9 8.1 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 5.1 4.4
LUKOIL (LKOH.RTS),USD55.00 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 8.28 7.80 9.32
P/E (x) 5.8 7.1 5.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 4.0 3.4
TNK-BP (TNBPI.RTS),USD1.95 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 0.41 0.33 0.33
P/E (x) 3.8 6.0 5.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.7 3.9 3.4
Surgutneftegaz (SNGS.RTS),USD0.95 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 0.12 0.12 0.09
P/E (x) 7.1 7.6 10.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 3.5 4.0
Gazprom Neft (SIBN.RTS),USD4.75 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 0.64 0.54 0.62
P/E (x) 5.1 8.8 7.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 4.4 4.9
Alliance Oil Company (AOILsdb.ST),SEK118.25 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 2.00 0.64 0.67
P/E (x) 5.2 25.3 24.4
EV/EBITA (x) 4.7 21.2 18.9
Tatneft (TATN.RTS),USD4.80 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 0.23 0.74 0.32
P/E (x) 21.7 6.5 14.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 4.2 7.6
Bashneft (BANE.RTS),USD29.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 2.13 2.20 6.95
P/E (x) 5.5 13.2 4.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.4 8.1 3.1
KazMunaiGas E&P (KMGq.L),USD24.38 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 3.74 2.86 3.48
P/E (x) 5.1 8.5 7.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.8 3.5
Sasol (SOLJ.J),ZAR293.89 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ZAR) 25.25 22.00 30.07
P/E (x) 12.1 13.4 9.8
EV/EBITA (x) 7.3 8.0 6.5
Transneft (TRNF_p.RTS),USD1,020.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 399.07 509.85 687.21
P/E (x) 2.6 2.0 1.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.2 2.4 1.8
Global Markets Research Company
Downside risk to the current high level of crude oil price
Our upgrade from USD65/bbl to USD70.5/bbl for the average 2010E Brent oil price
fits with a stronger economy and a rising stock market. However, high inventories,
ample spare OPEC capacity, significant excess refining capacity, the possibility of
a strong dollar and slowing stock markets suggest that financial and physical
factors are not bullish. The potential for some world economic setbacks in mid-
2010 encourages us to maintain a below-consensus outlook for 2010. We retain
the view that 2011E oil prices will average USD80/bbl, a price we believe is more
in line with extraction costs, and compares to an USD85/bbl consensus.
Company snapshots
We cut Gazprom target price by 20% to USD8.00/share on the incorporation of a
15% discount to the oil-linked gas price in Europe starting from 2011. That said,
valuation remains attractive and we maintain our Buy on the stock. We think
Novatek is due to become a real growth story essentially for the first time since
the strategy was delivered at IPO. We are looking at natural gas production growth
of 18% in 2010E y-o-y and maintain a target price of USD90/GDR; Buy. Rosneft
and TNK-BP Holding investment cases (both new Buys from Holds) have been
helped by the clarification of the export-duty issue. The government may be willing
to keep export duty rates in East Siberia at 40% of the normal level in 2011-12.
The LUKoil investment case has been hampered by ConocoPhillips’s intention to
sell half of its stake in the Russian company (10%) on the open market. We
introduce an additional 1pp liquidity risk component to our LUKoil discount rate
and maintain our Hold. Gazprom Neft delivered weaker-than-expected 4Q09 US
GAAP financial results and for that reason we believe that the stock’s recent
strong share price performance has not been justified. Growth outlook and licence
transfer from Gazprom remain uncertain; new Sell from Hold. Finally, we highlight
special situations—Bashneft, Alliance Oil and Transneft—all with Buy
recommendations. We believe they offer growth (Alliance Oil), attractive valuation
(Transneft) or a combination of growth and attractive valuation (Bashneft).
Valuation and risks
We use a 50:50 weighted analysis of discounted cash flow valuation and target
P/E multiples, which we apply to the oil and gas companies’ 2010 estimated
earnings. Downside risks to our Buy and Hold recommendations include lowerthan-
expected oil prices, capex overruns and the potential inability to control costs.
Slower tariff growth in the domestic market and cancellation of gas market
liberalisation are one the biggest risks to our Buy recommendations on Gazprom
and Novatek. Upside risks to our Sell and Hold recommendations include higherthan-
expected oil prices, greater operating and investment cost efficiency, and
further devaluation of the Russian rouble. (See pages 4-9 for more details.)
Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Brent forecast upgraded from USD65/bbl to USD70.5/bbl in ‘10E ...........................................3
50:50 weighted DCF/target multiple valuation..........................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Remain oil sector neutral.................................................................. 4
Valuation driven by downside oil price risk ...............................................................................4
Valuation methodology .............................................................................................................5
Application of APT-based DCF valuation...................................................................................5
Application of target multiples ..................................................................................................8
Calculation of target prices .......................................................................................................9
Sector investment outlook ............................................................. 10
We keep our preference of gas sector stocks ........................................................................11
Crude oil market outlook ................................................................ 14
The global economy................................................................................................................14
World oil demand....................................................................................................................15
Non-OPEC oil supply...............................................................................................................16
OECD inventories....................................................................................................................16
Oil price outlook......................................................................................................................17
Forecast changes............................................................................. 19
Revision of macro assumptions..............................................................................................19
Price assumptions...................................................................................................................20
Earnings revision: Russian O&G and KMG EP ........................................................................22
Sasol earnings revision ...........................................................................................................24
Appendix A: Valuation and risks for individual companies ......... 39