【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲航空行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
The currency paradox 4
Weak USD favours airlines 4
Risk to long-term valuation 6
Strong share price correlation 7
Our scenario favours Cathay 8
What if fuel price rises? 8
Marginal impact on airports and aircraft service providers 9
Financials & valuation –
Airlines 11
Air China 12
Cathay Pacific 13
China Eastern Airlines 14
China Southern Airlines 15
Korean Air 16
Malaysia Airlines 17
Qantas Airways Limited 18
Singapore Airlines 19
Thai Airways International 20
Financials & valuation –
Airports 21
Beijing Capital International 22
Hainan Meilan Airport 23
Hong Kong Aircraft Engine 24
SIA Engineering 25
Singapore Airport Terminal Services 26
Disclosure appendix 28
Disclaimer 31

Weak USD favours airlines
One of HSBC’s key currency calls for 2010 is
USD weakness. In this report, our scenario is
based on USD weakness against all currencies.
This unambiguously favours the Asian airlines.
Operating impact
The Asian airlines are short the USD. We estimate
that for the sector in aggregate, 33% of revenues
and 51% of costs are denominated in USD. Asian
airlines earn USD revenues from international
passenger and cargo operations. They incur fuel
and leasing costs which are primarily in USD.
1. Asian airlines have USD costs exceeding USD revenues
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cathay *
KAL
THAI
CAL
MAS
Air Asia
EVA
Qantas
SIA
Air China
CEA
CSA
Costs Rev enues
Source: HSBC estimates *We assume HKD a USD equivalent due to the peg
Looking at the impact of USD weakness on a
USD basis will allow us to compare airlines on a
like-for-like basis. Indeed, investors are USD
rather than local currency benchmarked. MAS and
CEA show the biggest change in EBIT as a result
of USD weakness. As shown in Figures 1 and 2,
they have short USD positions and thin margins.
In contrast, USD weakness has the least impact on
EVA as a result of its relatively balanced USD
revenues and costs.
2. EBIT impact on a USD basis
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
MAS*
CEA
CSA
KAL
Air China
Cathay
THAI
Qantas
CAL
SIA
Air Asia
EVA
EBIT impact on a USD basis
Source: HSBC estimates. *MAS has EBIT impact >100% due to a thin EBIT margin
Figure 3 shows the valuation impact as a result of
this EBIT change. KAL is the most leveraged,
with a 9% rise in valuation for a 1% depreciation