【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国医疗行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：244
        【目录或简介】：
Table of contents
Sector Underperforming 3
The Big Picture 4
Summary of Model Changes 5
Comp Sheet 6
A Quick Earnings Recap 8
What Happened Last Quarter… 9
What to Expect This Time Around… Our Earnings Preview 12
Earnings Calendar 13
Earnings Preview Tear Sheet 15
Short Interest Positions Heading Into Earnings 16
Sector “Hot Topics” 17
Company Earnings Previews 19
Philips (PHG.AS -Outperform) Reports April 19 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-Neutral) Reports April 20 21
Stryker (SYK-Neutral) Reports April 20 22
Edwards Lifesciences (EW-Outperform) Reports April 20 34
Abbott Labs (ABT-Neutral) Reports April 21 42
St. Jude Medical (STJ-Neutral) Reports April 21 43
Covidien (COV-Outperform) Reports April 21 54
Baxter (BAX-Neutral) Reports April 22 67
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH-Neutral) Reports April 22 84
Bard (BCR-Neutral) Reports April 22 96
Boston Scientific (BSX-Neutral) Reports April 26, Call April 27 106
Becton Dickinson (BDX-Neutral) Reports April 29 125
CareFusion (CFN-Neutral) 137
Nanosphere (NSPH-Outperform) Reports in May 142
Medtronic (MDT-Outperform) Reports in late May 147
Look out for Medicare IPPS Proposals 161
Medicare Hospital Inpatient Payment Proposal 162
Key Currency Exchange Rates 165
Key Market Updates 169
Cardiac Rhythm Management (CRM) 172
Coronary Stents 177
Heart Valves 186
Orthopedics 197
Blood Plasma Market 203
Blood Therapies and Market Shares 204
Stock Price Performance Review 205
S&P 500 Sector Performance 206
S&P 500 Healthcare 207
MedTech Individual Stock Performance 210
MedTech Valuations 215
Historical Sector Valuation: Recent Move Towards Market PE 216
Healthcare Cross-Sector Valuation Comparisons 218
Historical Stock Performance Drivers and Upcoming Catalysts 220
Glossary 232

On April 14, the Credit Suisse Global Equity Strategy team published a report outlining their expectation for the overall market. Our Strategy team has
recommended an overweight in equities since October 2008 (apart from when our tactical signals flagged caution last June for one month (Asset Allocation:
turning more cautious, 3 June 2009) and would recommend that investors stick with it. Though our mid-year target was unchanged at 1,220, the team now
believes that the renewed bear market in the S&P 500 that they had penciled in for the end of this year is likely to be a 2011 event. As a consequence, they took
their S&P 500 year-end target up to 1,270. However, they would not be surprised to see a substantial overshoot, 1,300 on the S&P 500 looks possible.
The team cited six main reasons for sticking to an overweight of equities: (1) Macroeconomic data still looks set to surprise positively while policy remains
reactive; (2) Equities typically give above-average returns in the year after unemployment peaks; (3) We think there is a risk that earnings growth could be 35%+
in 2010E; (4) Valuations are still relatively attractive; (5) We believe investors are mis-positioned, i.e. too bearish; and (6) The tactical indicators are consistent
with a further rise in equities.
Our strategist acknowledges that the risks have grown recently: the end of QE, a probable first Fed rate hike in September, the slight overvaluation of credit and
the fact that US cyclicals appear to be discounting profitability levels close to all-time highs. Hence, they recommend investors be only a small overweight of
equities. Furthermore, we still struggle to see how this can be a conventional bull market, given the remaining structural problems (most importantly, G4
overleverage of $6.5trn, on our calculations)—and thus would look to turn strategically bearish around Q2 2011.
The relative earnings momentum is not in the favor of healthcare or the MedTech space. As shown below, within the S&P 500, healthcare has one of the slowest
earnings growth rates expected for 2011 and it’s reasonably likely that earnings estimates have not yet been adjusted to reflect any fees or taxes incurred by the
sector related to the healthcare reform legislation. We expect our universe to grow on average 10-12%, which would also be a slower pace than the market as a
whole. We believe there are some bright spots and investing opportunities however, such as EW, MDT, and COV.