【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国个人用品行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：75
        【目录或简介】：

Driving volume in a recovering macro environment
As pricing laps and comparisons ease, industry is pushing hard to drive sagging
volume growth. Collateral damage, like brand equity dilutive promotional
spending, is likely but should be more than mitigated by lower costs and higher
volume leverage. Moreover, further consolidation is looming, which should put a
floor on many small and mid-cap names. Still, group only modestly undervalued
here, top picks mean reversion plays Newell, Energizer and Clorox.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Clorox (CLX.N),USD64.49 Buy
Energizer (ENR.N),USD61.28 Buy
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL.N),USD16.66 Buy
Avon (AVP.N),USD33.86 Buy
Companies featured
Clorox (CLX.N),USD64.49 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.81 4.28 4.66
P/E (x) 14.5 15.1 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 9.1 8.4
Alberto-Culver (ACV.N),USD27.92 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.33 1.59 1.73
P/E (x) 18.0 17.6 16.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 7.5 6.7
Avon (AVP.N),USD33.86 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.73 2.13 2.34
P/E (x) 15.7 15.9 14.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 9.5 8.4
Church & Dwight (CHD.N),USD68.33 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.47 4.00 4.22
P/E (x) 15.8 17.1 16.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 9.7 8.7
Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N),USD84.25 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.37 4.85 5.31
P/E (x) 16.1 17.4 15.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 10.6 9.8
Estee Lauder (EL.N),USD67.89 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.42 2.88 3.35
P/E (x) 24.3 23.5 20.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 11.9 10.8
Energizer (ENR.N),USD61.28 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 5.09 5.32 5.82
P/E (x) 10.5 11.5 10.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 7.6 6.8
Kimberly-Clark (KMB.N),USD61.82 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.52 4.69 5.14
P/E (x) 12.2 13.2 12.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 7.8 7.2
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL.N),USD16.66 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.31 1.47 1.60
P/E (x) 8.7 11.4 10.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 7.9 6.0
Procter & Gamble (PG.N),USD62.85 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.25 4.11 4.01
P/E (x) 13.8 15.3 15.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 11.3 10.3
Global Markets Research Company
Back to the basics: 1Q10 preview
March quarter should be continuation of trends from 4Q, with developing markets
driven revenue growth acceleration boosted by margin expansion from lower input
costs and cost and restructuring savings, net of stepped up advertising and
promotional spending. For the group in aggregate, we are looking for roughly 3%
organic growth, 4.5 pts. of F/X and 1 pt. of GM expansion, with lower interest
expense and high repo also helping results
Tweaking some estimates, raising target on Newell and Estee Lauder
We have raised our FY10 EPS estimate on Newell to $1.47 (from $1.43) as organic
sales improve modestly and our price target to $20 (from $18). We have raised
our price target on Estee Lauder from $57 to $70. We have also raised estimates
on Energizer to $0.12 to $1.06 due to timing of ad spending, keeping full year
intact. In addition, we have modestly raised estimates on Colgate due to lower
SG&A costs and Church & Dwight due to lower A&P spending, lowering Alberto-
Culver $0.01 due to lower organic sales estimates.
Valuation suggests group is slightly undervalued, keeping market perform
Hybrid relative valuation/industry DCF suggests stocks are slightly undervalued at
current levels. Group is about in-line with historical averages relative to the market
on historical P/E multiples, and industry DCF, which assumes 4.6% sales growth
and 0.4 pts. of margin expansion per year through 2016 (9% WACC, 0.6 beta, 3%
RfR, 80% equity, and 1.5% TVG) suggests group is about 7% undervalued relative
to its cash flow. Downside risks include higher trade spending, store and value
brand growth, further retailer SKU reductions and cost inflation, upside risks are
better volumes and resulting cost leverage, further dollar weakness, accelerated
cost savings, trade-up resumption and distribution gains at the expense of tertiary
brands. See pages 21-28 for further details on valuation and risks. This report
changes estimates and target prices for several companies under coverage; for
details sees Figure 21 and 22.

Table of Contents
Earnings quick reference...........................................................................................................5
Back to the basics.............................................................................. 6
Spending to drive growth in a volatile global macro .................................................................6
Estimates and price targets ....................................................................................................18
Management guidance summary ...........................................................................................19
Valuation ................................................................................................................................21
Comparable public company analysis .....................................................................................23
Risks ......................................................................................................................................28
Relative performance summary ..............................................................................................29
Company detail................................................................................ 30
Alberto-Culver .........................................................................................................................30
Avon Products ........................................................................................................................33
Church & Dwight ....................................................................................................................37
Colgate-Palmolive ...................................................................................................................41
Clorox Company......................................................................................................................45
Energizer ................................................................................................................................49
Estee Lauder..........................................................................................................................53
Kimberly-Clark .........................................................................................................................58
Newell-Rubbermaid ................................................................................................................63
Procter & Gamble ...................................................................................................................68