【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月南美证券市场投资策略
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：75
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
1. What’s new? 4
2. Top Trade Ideas 5
3. Equity Strategy 6
4. Stock Fundamentals 27
5. Equity Guide 36
6. Fixed Income & Foreign Exchange Rate Strategy 48
7. Economics 56

What’s new?
Equity Strategy
 In the Andean region, we continue to recommend Peru over Colombia because of political uncertainty.
However, our favorite stock in Peru is now Buenaventura as a hedge to rising global sovereign risk.
Meanwhile, we still like Cemargos in Colombia because of its dominant position in the local cement sector;
 We have revised our year-end targets for Brazil and Mexico…
– Mexico: our new Bolsa target is 40,000-pts (up from 38,000) and it reflects stronger-than-expected
earnings growth (+35% and +18% for 2010e and 2011e) and a slightly higher P/E multiple (15.1x).
– Brazil: our new Bovespa target is 80,000-pts (down from 85,000) and it reflects a stronger FX forecast
(1.65BRL/USD) and slightly lower P/E multiple (13.4x);
 …and we now favor Mexico over Brazil in the short-term – even though we remain O/W both markets
– In Mexico, equities should continue to benefit from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic figures;
– In Brazil, both commodities and domestics are facing headwinds. Commodities are suffering because of
a) a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and b) increasing global sovereign risk (i.e. Europe).
Meanwhile, domestics continue to struggle with the likely start of a local monetary tightening cycle.
 We reckon that we may be late in this country rotation – Mexico is up 10.6% while Brazil is down 0.7%
year-to-date – but things can get uglier…
–We see limited upside for Brazilian stocks in the next 1-2 months, while its high beta status should lead
to underperformance if the global scenario deteriorates further;
– In addition, Mexican equities continue to receive support from a strong recovery north-of-the-border,
and they should be more defensive if risk aversion spikes higher.