【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
On its way to recovery
Oil shipping: Positive outlook on single-hull vessel phasing out
The tanker market may, for the first time in five years, see stronger demand
growth than supply growth in 2010. While we estimate the tanker market may
expand only 1.9% y-y in 2010 after the single-hull vessels are retired, demand will
register 2.5% growth. The improving market environment may lead to a 20% rate
increase for oil shipping in 2010.
Dry-bulk shipping: A stronger BDI in 2010
While China’s imports of iron ore and coal may continue to grow in 2010, we
expect demand from the rest of the world to also improve. We thus expect the
global dry-bulk trade to increase 7.8% y-y in 2010 and 5.7% y-y in 2011. Although
the fleet is to expand in double digits in the next two years (we forecast growth of
12.0% y-y for 2010 and 10.8% y-y for 2011), demand growth could provide some
fresh cargoes for new capacities joining the fleet this year and the shipping rate
could remain relatively stable at 3,000 in 2010.
Container shipping: A turnaround story
We are turning positive toward the container shipping market, and believe liners
could break even this year. The world’s container fleet is scheduled to expand
7.0% y-y in 2010 and 5.5% in 2011 (nearly the lowest in a decade), while we
believe world trade will recover this year from last year’s great recession and post
double-digit demand growth. Meanwhile, shipping companies have been taking
capacity control measures to avoid price wars and protect the shipping rates. The
improving demand/supply pattern and shipping companies’ initiatives on capacity
control will result in higher shipping rates, in our view.
Upgrade China COSCO to BUY, and CSD to HOLD
We upgrade the shipping sector to OVERWEIGHT (from Underweight) on rising
rates and shipping volume. We upgrade China COSCO to BUY (from Reduce),
with a TP of HKD12.67on stronger BDI and improving environment for container
shipping this year. We believe China COSCO should provide the most earnings
upside if the global economy recovery is better than expected. Any material
improvement in the BDI and container shipping rates could be positive catalysts
for the share price. We also upgrade China Shipping Development (CSD) to
HOLD (from Reduce) on improving earnings growth prospects for 2010. However,
we believe the stock’s current valuation already factors in the growth given CSD’s
high earnings visibility.

Contents
1) Oil shipping: Positive 2010........................................................................................................................................................ 3
Demand outlook: Resuming growth in 2010........................................................................................................................ 3
Supply outlook: Slippage and phasing out of single-hull should save the situation in 2010 ................................................ 4
Shipping rates running well in 1Q10, a 20% shipping rate growth expected in 2010 .......................................................... 5
2) Dry-bulk shipping: A stronger BDI in 2010E............................................................................................................................ 6
Demand outlook: China demand should continue............................................................................................................... 6
Supply outlook: Order book slippage and scrapping should continue in 2010 .................................................................. 10
Raised BDI forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 11
3) Container shipping: Turnaround in 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 12
World trade is improving well ........................................................................................................................................... 12
Single-digit supply growth: lowest since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 12
Liners are likely to make profit this year ............................................................................................................................ 13
4) Company updates .................................................................................................................................................................... 17