【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月土耳其银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：
Relief in the cost of risk to rescue earnings?
Banks have already faced pressure in their margins in 1Q10, and so far the relief in
the cost of risk has offset the NII decline. Although top line should soon start to
contribute to profitability, we believe the main difference in earnings should be
asset quality-related; the asset quality outlook will be critical to the potential relief
in provisions and the level of collections. This report focuses on the extent of a
potential easing in the cost of risk, the risks associated with asset quality, and the
potential effect on earnings.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Halkbank (HALKB.IS),TRY12.00 Buy
Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK.IS),TRY4.48 Buy
Companies featured
Akbank (AKBNK.IS),TRY7.25 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.91 0.75 0.89
P/E (x) 10.4 9.6 8.2
P/B (x) 2.0 1.7 1.5
Bank Asya (ASYAB.IS),TRY3.94 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.33 0.39 0.47
P/E (x) 9.9 9.8 8.2
P/B (x) 1.8 1.7 1.4
Garanti Bank (GARAN.IS),TRY7.10 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.71 0.78 0.93
P/E (x) 9.0 9.1 7.7
P/B (x) 2.0 1.9 1.6
Halkbank (HALKB.IS),TRY12.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 1.31 1.44 1.72
P/E (x) 9.1 8.4 7.0
P/B (x) 2.6 2.2 1.8
Isbank (ISCTR.IS),TRY5.10 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.53 0.53 0.56
P/E (x) 10.7 8.4 7.9
P/B (x) 2.1 1.5 1.3
Vakifbank (VAKBN.IS),TRY3.94 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.50 0.51 0.60
P/E (x) 8.4 7.6 6.5
P/B (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0
Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK.IS),TRY4.48 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.31 0.42 0.54
P/E (x) 10.5 10.7 8.2
P/B (x) 1.7 1.9 1.6
Global Markets Research Company
Extent of the relief in cost of risk to make a difference
Our base assumptions are that NPL ratios remain flat in 2010. We expect the NPL
stock to increase 13% in 2010, and loan growth of 22% should allow the NPL ratio
to remain stable yoy. However, we believe factors like a potential reversal of free
provisions, the normalization of coverage ratios, stronger collections and a
provisioning amendment on general provisions entail upside risks to our
valuations. The potential could be as high as 15% of our earnings on average, with
Yapi Kredi (+44%), Garanti (+21%) and Isbank (+15%) at the high end and Akbank
(+4%), Vakifbank (+4%) and Halkbank (+3%) at the low end. We assume Isbank
and Akbank will sustain their 100% provisioning policies, as in the past. Should
these banks change their conservative provisioning stances, the provision release
effect on the bottom line could be substantial.
Potential delay in recovery threatens improvement in asset quality outlook
A delay in the economic recovery is a risk to our base scenario, as this could delay
improvement in the asset quality outlook, meaning the conservative position on
provisioning may continue. In a bearish scenario (in which we assume 50% of
performing loans restructured in 2009 become NPLs in 2010, all Group-II loans
become NPLs in 2010 and there is no relief in coverage ratios), earnings could be
on average 38% lower than our base (EPS: -31% vs. +11%). Garanti, Halkbank,
Yapi Kredi and Akbank would be relatively more resilient in such a scenario.
Yapi Kredi and Halkbank are our top picks
Yapi Kredi remains a top pick. We add Halkbank as a top pick, as we believe it
offers one of the best valuation/earnings combinations. We continue to rate
Garanti and Bank Asya Buy. We downgrade Vakifbank to Hold on limited upside
potential, upgrade Akbank to Hold on its recent underperformance and decline in
the premium over peers, and maintain Hold for Isbank. We value Turkish banks
using the Gordon Growth method. Risks: faster recovery in business activity and
consumer confidence (upside); and recovery delay (downside). This report
changes forecasts, estimates and ratings for stocks we cover. For details, please
see Figure 1.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Asset quality: A rescuer of bottom line this time? ....................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................6
Who has the most potential? ........................................................... 7
Extent of the relief in cost of risk to make the difference .........................................................7
Rankings ..................................................................................................................................8
Key findings ..............................................................................................................................8
A surprise on the upside? ............................................................... 10
Assumptions may prove conservative should NPL outlook improve faster than anticipated..10
Planning for the worst .................................................................... 13
Downside risks to our base scenario ......................................................................................13
The credit quality overview............................................................ 14
2009: A year of erosion in asset quality ..................................................................................14
Regulator provided help for asset quality................................................................................17
Relief in provisions to potentially set the fate of earnings in 2010..........................................20
Valuation .......................................................................................... 21
BANKS SECTION ............................................................................. 22
Akbank.............................................................................................. 23
Garanti.............................................................................................. 26
Halkbank........................................................................................... 29
Isbank ............................................................................................... 32
Vakifbank.......................................................................................... 35
Yapi Kredi ......................................................................................... 38
Bank Asya......................................................................................... 41