【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月土耳其银行业研究报告
        【作者】：OYAK证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：50
        【目录或简介】：
We do not expect Turkey to outperform its natural GDP growth rate… With less availability of funding compared to a decade ago and deteriorating public balances, we expect Turkey to average 5% annual GDP growth rate in the medium term.
Lower domestic debt rollover ratios will be the major source of available liquidity… Similar to previous years, banks will finance the bulk of the loan growth through funds freed from declining share of investment securities. Yet, the expected rate of decline in securities growth and current level of leverage can only justify a 20% loan growth p.a. Conversely, it is evident that foreign banks are still willing to fund Turkish growth through Turkish banks. However, funding expansion in 2010 through syndications and agency funding will relatively slow down in 2011.
Lower margins on the back of repricing assets… Positive effects of windfall gains will last for a couple of quarters. In the meantime, we expect T-Bill rates to hit 12% during the course of the year, independent of CBT policy rates which we deem irrelevant to some extend at this point in time. (We expect 2010 inflation to be 9%.)
Still, we expect bottomline earnings to expand by 10% in 2010… Although, we expect NIM to contract around 100bps with less contribution from securities and repriced loans, lower than expected LLP/Loans- 1.45% in 2010 vs. 2.5% in 2009- and loan expansion of circa 20% to more than compensate the margin contraction. In 2011, we expect NIM to recover slightly by 40bps and gradually to stabilize around 4.9%.
It is an early call but next decade might turn out to be less profitable for the banking system… We cannot yet factor in the low interest rate environment for the Turkish banking system as a whole. Considering the track record of rapid adaptation to altering economic conditions, we have assumed that banks will increase their fee base to counter the negative effects of margin contraction. However, the major downside risk would be depressed margins for prolonged periods.
We believe that deposit and retail franchise will be the two crucial factors of growth for individual banks... Temporary relief in deposit rates will fade away with growth. Improving but still considerably high PSBR will still continue to diminish the strength evident from low LDR. Foreign funding will improve but will only be sufficient to support FX loan growth of 13% per annum. It will be a diminishing return environment.
Valuation method revised… We adjusted our banking valuations with our slightly revised net income expectations, our previously revised macroeconomic targets had spread out the interest rate and currency volatility between 2010 and 2011. We started using TRL valuations for the banks with a COE of 15.6%. With our slightly revised assumptions and new valuation methodology, we raised our price targets for banks by 15% on average.
We still prefer Isbank among private banks due to its favorable multiples and deposit franchise which we believe will be the most crucial strength in the next couple of years. Halkbank, hammered by SPO worries, offers a 24% upside to our target price of TRL14.6 and is the other top pick. TSKB is a sure bet for loan growth and profitability for 2010 and continues to be our one and only medium sized pick. Contrastingly, we believe medium sized banks will find it harder to be profitable under the low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, we maintain our MARKETPERFORM rating for both Akbank and YKB even with stretched multiples, since short term profitability is intact and we wish to give the benefit of the doubt for 2H10 performance. We believe Garanti will be market performer until GE issue is resolved whilst we also believe Vakifbank might continue to be market performer, for a while, without any major catalyst even with such competitive multiples.