报告摘要：
„  Global: “Shock and uhhh”
Unfortunately, European policy makers seem to be incapable of taking decisive
action. In our view, had the EU moved quickly with a one-year bailout plan, the
Greek crisis could have been indefinitely postponed.  
United States: Its all Greek to me
After an initial productivity driven recovery, the economy is settling into more
balanced growth, with increasing jobs and hours worked. This bodes well for the
sustainability of the recovery as fiscal stimulus fades.
Euro area: Sovereign crisis threatens the recovery
The Euro sovereign crisis reached a stage of significant contagion, crossing the
barrier from the financial to the real economy. It will likely hit surveys in May and
hard data a little thereafter. We adjust our key forecasts.
UK: Hung parliament, Conservatives largest party
The election has resulted in a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest
single party. Attention now turns to building working coalitions between parties.  
Japan: Assessment of upside/downside risks
The Japanese economy’s trade with the EU and exposure to the Euro are
relatively limited. Meanwhile, signs of a domestic demand recovery are increasing
based on rebounds in household incomes and corporate earnings. Therefore,
there will be little need for a downward revision to our forecast. The biggest risk
remains the possibility of a full-scale contagion brought about by the Greek
sovereign debt crisis, particularly to the US and Asia.  
Emerging Asia: Déjà vu all over again  
The point here is that we expect growth to slow, and the turmoil in Europe puts
more emphasis on the downside. However, the shock from Europe occurs at a
very strong point in the cycle.  
Emerging EMEA: What if Greece restructures?  
What if Greece restructures? CEE is clearly poised for underperformance but a
domino effect is unlikely, in our view. Fiscal and external balances are much
better than in the Eurozone periphery. Our vulnerability score card suggests
Bulgaria and Romania will be most hit.
Latin America: Chile: kicking off rate normalization
In Chile, we expect the BCCh to raise the benchmark TPM by 25bp to 0.75% at
the 13 May meeting as it begins normalizing the policy rate. Indications from the
BCCh that the process will be gradual lead us to believe the bank will begin with
two 25bp hikes before picking up the pace, ultimately hiking 350bp by year-end.
We expect the TPM to end 2010 at 4.00% and 2011 at 6.00%.