【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚太海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Container shipping: Capacity Discipline
Unprecedented… Morgan Stanley held a conference
call with John Fossey from Containerisation
International on May 6, 2010. Our key takeaway is that
shipping companies are now and are likely to remain
extremely disciplined in managing capacity due to
liquidity constraints. Amidst considerable uncertainty on
container shipping demand and ship deliveries, carriers
are focusing on gradual, disciplined capacity additions to
maintain freight rates and profitability.
…Resulting in sustained freight rate strength over
the next 12 months. Some 50% of the 2010
Transpacific annual contracts have been signed at
average rates of US$1,600-1,700/FEU on the Asia-US
West Coast routes, 75-80% higher than 2009 contracts,
bringing rates back up to 2008 contract levels (which
was profitable). Despite new capacity introduced to the
Asia-Europe routes, the potential near-term negative
impact on freight rates could be lower than our earlier
expectations of a 15-20% rate decline because of
capacity discipline.
Accumulate OOIL, EGM, YMM and CSCL: We expect
positive catalysts from: 1) strong 2H10 container
volumes and capacity discipline providing ammunition
for peak season and bunker fuel surcharges; 2)
consensus earnings upgrades as we expect most
container shipping companies to be breakeven in 2Q10.
Dry bulk shipping: Expect BDI to be weaker… This is
because we believe the end of the South America grain
season in May will no longer provide support for rates on
smaller ship sizes.
…Cautious on dry bulk shipping stocks: We expect
BDI to be volatile but range-bound at 2,000-4,000 over
the next 12 months and expect dry bulk shipping stocks
to similarly trade range-bound.

Container Shipping: Unprecedented Capacity Discipline
Will Keep Freight Rates Strong
Morgan Stanley held a container shipping conference call with
John Fossey from Containerisational International (CI) on
May 6, 2010. Our key takeaway from that meeting is that
shipping companies are now and are likely to remain
extremely disciplined in managing capacity due to
liquidity constraints. We think that this means that freight
rates are likely to continue on an upward trend over the next
6-12 months.
Below we highlight CI’s key comments from the conference
call:
• Unprecedented Capacity Discipline: Amidst
considerable uncertainty on container shipping demand
and ship supply, shipping companies are in no hurry to add
new capacity on trade lanes and are instead focusing on
gradual and disciplined capacity additions to maintain
freight rates and profitability across all trade routes. In
2009, aggressive market share and pricing strategies by
some carriers in hopes of pushing competitors to
bankruptcy backfired and instead resulted in wide-spread
industry losses and bailouts. With this lesson in mind,
shipping companies’ current focus is on repairing
damaged balance sheets and generating cash to pay for
large capital expenditure commitments.
• 2010 Transpacific contract rates up 75-80% from 2009
contracts; back to 2008 contract rate levels: Thus far,
approximately 50% of the annual service contracts have
been signed at US$1,600-1,700/FEU on the Asia to US
West Coast routes, sharply higher than 2009 service
contracts rates of US$900-950/FEU. This implies that the
Transpacific Stablisation Agreement guidance of
US$800/FEU rate hike on the Asia-US West Coast route
was largely implemented. Shippers have agreed to this
substantial rate hike as they are prepared to pay higher
freight rates for space guarantees subsequent to the lack
of capacity seen in 1Q10 and with shipping companies
unwilling to add more capacity until freight rates are
agreed at the higher level.