瑞信报告：中国互联网行业:在人口结构转变中挑选赢家

Demographic dividend is diminishing... We reckon there are, in total, 200 mn untapped citizens to be embraced, over the existing 830 mn internet users, and the pace to acquire the last batch will be very fast (as early as 2021) leaving overseas expansion an appealing option. Our preferred sectors—games and ecommerce—could expand their user cohort for a wider audience, and education enjoys natural growth of its core cohort.

…but consumption upgrade to outshine. More than half of China’s population still generates a GDP per capita below the national average of US$10,000; with the boost from accelerating urbanisation, we see tremendous upside on consumption upgrade, paving the way for better monetisation by leading players. As such, rising ARPU and monetisation will be common themes for China internet in the next five years