汇率波动的区域影响

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS

作者：

克里斯托弗·L·豪斯（Christopher L. House）

基督教预言（Christian Proebsting）

琳达·L·特萨尔（Linda L. Tesar）

We exploit differences across U.S. states in terms of their exposure to trade to study the effects ofchanges in the exchange rate on economic activity at the business cycle frequency. We find that adepreciation in the state-specific trade-weighted real exchange rate is associated with an increasein exports, a decline in unemployment and an increase in hours worked. The effect is particularlystrong in periods of economic slack. We develop a multi-region model with inter-state trade andlabor flows and calibrate it to match the state-level orientation of exports and the extent of labormigration and trade between states. The model replicates the relationship between exchange ratesand unemployment. Counterfactuals show that the high degree of interstate trade plays adominant role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migrationshapes cross-sectional patterns in following years. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese importtariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small directlinkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.
我们利用美国各州在贸易风险方面的差异来研究汇率变化对经济周期中经济活动的影响。我们发现，特定于州的贸易加权实际汇率的贬值与出口增加，失业率下降和工作时间增加有关。在经济不景气时期，这种影响尤其明显。我们开发了一个具有州际贸易和劳动力流动的多区域模型，并对其进行校准，以匹配州一级的出口导向以及州与州之间的劳动力迁移和贸易的程度。该模型复制了汇率和失业率之间的关系。反事实表明，第一年间，州际贸易的高度活跃，在各州之间传递冲击，而州际迁移则影响着未来几年的横截面格局。该模型表明，即使在与中国有直接联系的州中，也将在整个美国感受到中国对美国商品征收25％的进口关税，短期内将失业率提高了0.2至0.7个百分点。