为什么一提汇改就是人民币升值、美国阴谋论等等这样的说法呢？汇率不是一国货币的价格么？为什么不可以市场化？我们既然选择了市场经济，为什么要把货币商品非市场化呢？个人认为，这次汇改应该会沿袭之前的方法，继续在货币篮子中减少美元的权重，增加欧元、港币、日元、韩元等的权重，即重点是优化人民币的汇率形成机制，让人民币汇率更好的拟合市场的观点，而完全市场化的汇率，即人民币完全自由兑换可能会在5年内成行。近期看，人民币汇率已经有接近均衡汇率的趋势，短期是升值，不排除超调的可能。所以，05年汇改至今，可以看做寻求均衡汇率的第一次试错，危机的爆发，强化了这次暂停汇改观察汇率市场化程度的需求。

近至中国, 远至世界…. 皆为多事之秋啊! 欧元的堕落, 人民币又该何去何从啊?!
看看SOROS的大论吧, 不知这个老狐狸又在酝酿什么呐….

Soros says Germany could cause euro collapse
(Reuters) - Germany's budget savings policy risks destroying the European project and a collapse of the euro cannot be ruled out, billionaire investor George Soros said in a newspaper interview released on Wednesday.
"German policy is a danger for Europe, it could destroy the European project," he told German weekly Die Zeit.

Soros, who earned $1 billion in 1992 by betting against the British pound, added that he "could not rule out a collapse of the euro."

"If the Germans don't change their policy, their exit from the currency union would be helpful for the rest of Europe," he said.

Chancellor AngelaMerkel unveiled plans earlier this month for 80 billion euros ($107 billion) in budget cuts over the next four years -- a package she hopes will bring Germany's structural deficit within European Union limits by 2013.

"Right now the Germans are dragging their neighbors into deflation, which threatens a long phase of stagnation. And that leads to nationalism, social unrest and xenophobia. Democracy itself could be at risk," he said.

"Germany is globally isolated ... Why don't they let their salaries rise? That would help other EU states to pick up."

Merkel on Monday defended her budget cut plans after U.S. President Barack Obama preached patience in clamping down on public spending. A German government official said on Tuesday Berlin did not expect to come under pressure at a G20 summit in Toronto this weekend to provide fresh stimulus measures.

现在汇改的确是个比较好的时间，现在我们唯一担心的是其对物价的印象会太过剧烈，我们的可以加大对于热钱的控制，只要保证这一点，这次汇改不但可以保证对经济的有利刺激，还可以解决中国外汇储备过大的内忧外患。