【名称及出版时间】： Worldwide Steel Outlook - 2010.06.28
【来源】： Fitch Ratings
【文件格式】： PDF
【页数】： 11
【目录】：
Fitch Ratings expects demand for steel to continue on a slow and steady recovery pace
over the next 12−18 months, but not to reach peak levels for developed nations until
2013. Pricing should continue to be constrained by excess capacity, and raw material
cost pass-through could be challenging. Excess or uneconomic production should be
limited.
Regional differences in steel market dynamics will be a major influence on steel
producers’ profitability and cash flow generation. Worldwide steel trade has fallen
more than production as a result of sharply lower demand in importing nations, coupled
with low capacity utilization and short lead times at domestic steel mills. Producers
relying on exports will be exposed to price competition approaching marginal cost,
intensifying trade barriers, and currency fluctuations.
With capacity utilization in most regions above 70%, producers are better able to
manage profitable production and prudent investment. With the rebound in raw
materials prices, producers with raw materials integration should show a sustainable
advantage. During the very severe global steel contraction beginning in the fourth
quarter of 2008, such producers were punished twice due to the need to curtail both
raw material production and steel production while excess stocks were worked down.
Producers with relatively high exposure to value-added steel products should also show
a sustainable advantage given premium pricing. Producers with substantial operating
scale, affording the ability to temporarily curtail production during lulls to reduce costs
while serving customer demand, should also show sustainable advantage.
Producers with relatively high exposure to construction in some developed countries
will be disadvantaged as a result of credit- or fiscal-induced austerity spending levels
over the next 18−24 months.
Fitch continues to monitor recovery in each market, and assesses each issuer default
rating (IDR) and Rating Outlook based on the issuer’s ability to return to its average
credit profile given its operations, strategy, competitive position, capital structure, and
liquidity.