通货膨胀的财政根源

The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

作者：约翰·H·科克伦（John H. Cochrane）

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each component via a vector autoregression, in response to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount rates, rather than deficits, account for most inflation variation. Smooth inflation that slowly devalues outstanding long-term bonds is an important mechanism.
意外的通货膨胀使名义ZF债券贬值。因此，它必须与预期的未来盈余的减少或折价率的上升相对应，以便债务的实际价值等于盈余的现值。我通过向量自回归来测量每个组件，以响应通胀，衰退，盈余和贴现率冲击。折现率而非赤字是造成通货膨胀变化的主要原因。平稳的通货膨胀会慢慢使长期债券贬值，这是一个重要的机制。